Australian wheat prices hit 13-month high in July

Australian wheat prices rose sharply in July amid disruptions to Black Sea supplies and concerns over further escalation in the region. According to S&P Global, Australian Premium White (APW) wheat reached $295/ton on July 23, while Australian Standard White (ASW) climbed to $287/ton, marking a 13-month high.

Prices eased from their peaks toward the end of July but remained well above levels seen at the beginning of the month. On July 31, Platts assessed APW wheat at $289/ton, up $18/ton from July 1, while ASW increased by $16/ton to $282/ton. The rally accelerated in the second half of July as attacks on port infrastructure and commercial vessels raised expectations that some demand could shift away from Russian and Ukrainian wheat to alternative origins.

However, the rapid rise in Australian prices limited buying interest from Southeast Asian importers. Argentina captured part of the demand that could otherwise have shifted from the Black Sea to Australia. Argentine 11.5% protein wheat was offered at around $290/ton CFR, compared with nearly $310/ton for Australian ASW with 9% protein in mid-July. As a result, buyers mainly turned to Australian wheat to cover near-term requirements, while larger volumes were increasingly replaced by Argentine supplies.

Conditions for Australia’s new wheat crop remain generally favorable, supported by adequate rainfall across most major growing regions, except northern New South Wales and Queensland. Market participants currently estimate Australia’s 2026/27 wheat production at around 30 mln tons. However, the forecast remains vulnerable to downward revisions depending on weather conditions in August-September and the timing of a possible El Niño event.

Asian importers are expected to continue closely monitoring developments in the Black Sea. Prolonged disruptions to safe shipping could keep Australian wheat prices elevated in the near term. Meanwhile, feed wheat demand across Asia is likely to remain subdued, as delivered corn prices are at least $20/ton below the most competitive feed wheat offers, encouraging buyers to switch to South American corn.

Tags: Australia, prices, wheat