Australia raises wheat crop forecast as export demand grows

Australia has raised its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 29.9 mln tons after strong winter rainfall significantly improved crop conditions. The Agriculture Department’s new estimate is around 12% above its June forecast, and the expected crop could be the eighth-largest on record.

Production is still expected to remain below last season’s 36 mln tons, largely due to a decline in planted area. However, earlier concerns over dry conditions and potential shortages of farm inputs have eased considerably. Above-average rainfall in South Australia and Victoria from May to July has put most crops three to four weeks ahead of normal development, with yield potential well above average.

The improved crop outlook comes as international demand for Australian wheat is strengthening amid reduced supplies from the Black Sea region. Disruptions to shipments from Ukraine and Russia are forcing buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to increasingly seek alternative origins.

Wheat exports from Western Australia alone are forecast at nearly 1 mln tons in September, 29% above the 15-year average for the month. According to Bendigo Bank, Australia’s September wheat export program is among the strongest on record, indicating that Australian grain is already capturing some of the demand left unmet by reduced Black Sea supplies.

Against this backdrop, Australia’s Agriculture Department expects wheat prices to rise by around 6%, supported by strong domestic feed demand and growing international interest in high-protein wheat. Global supplies of high-protein wheat could tighten as producers in other countries reduced fertilizer applications in early 2026 due to higher fertilizer prices.

Tags: forecast, Australia, wheat