Australia: Prices soften, parts of north sodden

Prices have softened in the past week as prospects for a big new crop consolidate ahead of what is forecast to be a wetter-than-average spring.

In parts of northern New South Wales, minor flooding and waterlogging is causing some crop losses, with the Namoi Valley the most heavily impacted.

Generally, northern crops are on track for above-average yields, with the cereal harvest expected to start in Central Queensland next month.

In the south, light and patchy rain has cereal crops establishing well ahead of spring, although its widespread lack of subsoil moisture could be its major yield limiter.

Southern growers are therefore hoping for a general and soaking rain in the next fortnight, such as was seen in Western Australia in the week to today.

It would set up South Australian, Victorian, and southern NSW cereals for mostly average yields ahead of warmer temperatures expected next month.

On the marketing front, northern growers located close to consumers are generally selling off the last of their wheat and barley to make room for the upcoming winter crop.

In the south, and into the flood-affected Liverpool Plains, growers are not confident enough in new-crop prospects to sell forward.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Parts of the north have had soaking rain in recent days, and the Bureau of Meteorology has issued flood warnings for the Barwon, Namoi and Peel rivers.

Depending on rainfall and spills from public storages, more flood warnings may be issued in coming days.

However, other districts in Qld and north and central missed the rain altogether, and trade sources say it is therefore not possible to generalise about the season, with some paddocks under water, and others in need of a drink.

In the northern half of NSW, rainfall registrations in the week to 9am today include: Coonamble 26mm; Dubbo 20mm; Gunnedah 25mm; Moree and Walgett 24mm; Mungindi 19mm; Tamworth 49mm; Wee Waa 31mm.

In Qld, the heaviest grainbelt rain fell in the Maranoa and western Downs regions, and registrations include: Dalby 14mm; Macalister 22mm; Miles 38mm; Roma 21mm; St George 14mm, and Surat 35mm;

At Breeza on the Liverpool Plains, dryland and irrigated grower Stephen Gibson estimates up to 15 percent of his crop has been underwater because of earlier flooding, and may go under again after around 35mm yesterday.

“That’s made it logistically challenging to do summer-crop prep, like putting fertiliser down,” Mr Gibson said.

“We’ve lost a small area of chickpeas, and some low spots in canola paddocks were taken out earlier, but some of the early cereals are the best I’ve ever seen.

“The good stuff will be brilliant, and the bad stuff will be poor.”

Mr Gibson’s better-yielding wheat crops are on track to yield 7t/ha or more.

He said sorghum planting was only five weeks away, weather permitting, and markets pointed to a better gross margin for it than for late-planted wheat.

“We have lost some crop, but all our storages are full.”

At Walgett, Outlook Ag director Greg Rummery estimates flood losses overall for the district were around 5pc, although growers most exposed to Namoi flooding may have lost up to 50pc.

“Crops are generally tracking along pretty well, and they look remarkably good where they’re on good moisture,” Mr Rummery said.

“Most growers have top dressed and completed their programs; where we haven’t done that, crops are showing signs of deficiency.”

Downstream from Narrabri, crop flooding is said to be most widespread in the Pilliga and Goangra districts.

Mr Rummery said harvest was expected to kick off with canola and faba beans in the second half of October, followed by wheat, and then chickpeas in November.

At Darwalla Milling in Qld, feeds manager Gary Heidenreich said pre-harvest slots appear to be largely filled.

“I think a lot of consumers have a fair coverage up until harvest,” Mr Heidenreich said.

“There’s only September and October left before new crop.”

Barley harvesting in southern Qld is expected to start next month, with wheat likely to hit the bins in volume from late October.

He said poultry operations like Darwalla, and consumers in other sectors, can be expected to keep some spots for late-season current-crop sales.

“You’ve got to leave something for those farmers who want to clean silos out at the last minute.”

In Vic, rainfall in cropping and mixed-farming areas was mostly below 10mm, and very patchy in the Mallee and North Wimmera.

In SA, Yorke Peninsula and the South East got 10-25mm in most districts.

On Eyre Peninsula, Coulta on 26mm and Lock on 17mm got the best of the region’s falls, while other districts generally got 5-10mm at best.

One trader said crops in the southern Riverina of NSW were looking good after June-July rain, but lack of subsoil moisture was a concern.

“We don’t have a lot of moisture in the bank, and the crops are still one or two weeks late,” he said.

Consolidating prospects for spring pasture growth have seen some growers offering parcels of barley to the market, as confidence builds in their ability to stop supplementary feeding sheep and cattle in coming weeks.

This is being offset by others with plans to continue supplementary feeding to make the most of the buoyant livestock market.

“People with the ability to keep feeding will keep feeding.

“Maintenance feeding is ongoing, and people selling pellets are still pretty busy.”

He said lamb feedlots have grown in number over the recent drought period.

“The big guys are set up to do it, and do it well.”

Tags: barley, prices, wheat, chickpeas, yields, faba beans, sorghum