Australia: Prices firm on southern dry

Up-country values in the southern region have risen by up to $10 per tonne in the past week in response to critically dry conditions which are biting into yield potential and seeing a bigger-than-expected area of cereals cut for hay.

As the barley harvest gathers pace in Queensland and far northern New South Wales, northern values have eased.

Accumulation of everything bar canola remains thin in the opening weeks of the shipping year, with traders appearing reluctant to take positions as consumers chip away on coverage for coming months.

	Prompt Oct 2	Prompt Oct 9	Jan Oct 2	Jan Oct 9
Downs barley	$300	$285	$304	$290
Downs SFW	$335	$325	$325	$330
Downs sorghum	$333	$335	Mar-Apr $312	$315
Mel barley	$320	$325	$305	$310
Mel ASW	$348	$335	$325	$330

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne

Barley is being harvested in volume this week from Central Qld to the NSW-Qld border after a week of hot and dry weather.

With another week of maximum temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius or above forecast, many more growers are expected to start harvesting in coming days.

Feedlots, poultry and pig farms are advancing coverage with new-crop grain, and with the chickpea market still in the doldrums, barley is shaping up as the cash sale of the 2025 harvest.

Quality of barley harvested to date has been good, but one trader said test weights of early crops are around 68-69kg/hectolitre,  below hopes for 72kg, but well above the BAR1 minimum of 62.5kg.

“We just didn’t get that last rain to top things up,” the trader said.

If weather stays hot and dry, low test weights and high screening could become an issue for crops lacking subsoil moisture needed to fill crops that have set themselves up for big yields.

Feedlots outside the western Downs have paid as little as $275/t delivered for barley from nearby farms.

“I get the impression the trade hasn’t taken positions with feedlots, and poultry’s buying SFW or better wheat, and barley.”

Precious little rain has fallen in key cropping areas of South Australia, Victoria, and southern NSW in the past week.

In NSW, some crops jagged a decent rain, and totals for the week to 9am today include: Cootamundra 18mm; Cowra and Grenfell 7mm, and West Wyalong 12mm.

In SA and Vic, crops generally got 5-10mm at best.

Wilken Grain trader Andrew Kelso said some localised premiums were popping up for grain as major consumers factored in deteriorating seasonal conditions.

“They don’t want grain moving too far from their own backyard,” Mr Kelso said.

The dry finish means wheat in southern NSW, Vic and SA is likely to have average or higher protein, but quality could be an issue if a rain or two does not arrive to help crops fill.

“The potential risk down here is lower weights and higher screenings.”

In up-country markets, barley and APW-type wheat have gained up to $10/t in the past week or so in response to local conditions.

Lachstock Consulting’s October barley supply-and-demand report out today said China has booked up to 25 new-crop cargoes of Australian barley for shipment by February, mostly from Western Australia.

Lachstock’s latest estimates put the national barley crop at a record 14.98 million tonnes (Mt), with WA pencilled in for 6.48mt.

Growers are now making decisions about whether to cut cereals and canola for hay, instead of harvesting grain as was the intention at planting.

A decent proportion of crops with little or no subsoil moisture under them, and no substantial rain on the eight-day forecast ahead of them, are expected to be cut this month while they still have biomass.

Crops are already being dropped in areas as far east as Marnoo in Vic’s Wimmera district.

“In a lot of areas, we’re hitting the wall,” St Arnaud-based Driscoll Ag director and senior agronomist Brett Douglas said.

“Some people have decided to cut wheat crops in the Marnoo district, which is very uncharacteristic.

“We’ve also got some canola in the St Arnaud district that will be cut for hay.”

The district is a major producer of oaten hay, which yields roughly double that of barley and wheaten hay.

On present figures, and with concerns about harvested grain quality, Mr Douglas said even barley and wheaten hay looked to some like a better option than taking through to grain.

“Low test weight will be an issue and screenings will be an issue, but the big issue is grain yield versus hay yield.

“Grain prices aren’t attractive, and even lentils are back from $1000/t last year to $550/t now.”

Mr Douglas said the desire for producers to refill their empty hay sheds was another reason to cut and bale rather than harvest crops.

Haymaking has started across most districts in SA, Vic, and southern NSW, with oats and vetch the major crops to have been cut thus far.

“Because it’s drying out on us, we’re cutting a lot of crops earlier than we normally would.”

In SA, Clare-based Platinum Ag Services agronomist Phil Holmes said pulses and canola were coming towards the end of flowering and podding, and cereals were at various stages of flowering.

“The further west you go towards the Gulf of St Vincent, crops are looking quite sad; they’ve run out of moisture,” Mr Holmes said.

“As you head a bit further east into the hills around Clare, things are hanging in there a lot better.”

Concerns about screenings and low test weights in cereals are also looming unless a rain or two falls between now and the completion of grain fill.

While last year’s growing season had less rain than this one, it resulted in remarkably good grain quality.

“That’s because the crops last year didn’t attempt to do too much; in 2025, crops have set themselves up to be average or pretty reasonable crops.

“West of Clare, crops really needed rain last week or this week, and they didn’t get it.

“East of Clare, there’s still potential for October rain to be of some benefit.”

Aside from low grain prices and high demand for hay to sell or use on farm, Mr Holmes said ryegrass infestations were pointing growers towards baling rather than harvesting their crops.

Mr Holmes said crops that have been frosted, or are “dirty”, also look likely to be cut rather than harvested.

“Because it was so dry and people didn’t get a complete germination of ryegrass to spray with knockdown herbicide pre-emergence, we’re getting a lot of the ’23 and ’24 weeds in ’25.

“For people with hay machinery especially, it’s an easy decision to drop for hay instead of go for grain.

“On the pasture side, there’s not much feed around, and there’ll be a lot of handfeeding for some time.”

Tags: barley, wheat, crop, yield, sorghum