Australia: Markets firm as growers hold

Prices have moved firmed a little in the past week as harvest winds down in the north and activity remains comparatively limited in the south.

Rain, cool weather, and wind resulting in a harvest ban on November 13 in the Mallee have all conspired to make for a slow start to the South Australian and Victorian harvests.

In Vic’s Wimmera, late crops are getting later, and growers in eastern states generally have sold a smaller proportion of wheat and barley than is normal for this time of year.

Trade sources are expecting some consumer shorts to appear, particularly in the south, where an accelerating barley export program and a late harvest has limited prompt availability.

	Prompt Nov 6	Prompt Nov 13	Jan Nov 6	Jan Nov 13
Downs barley	$310	$313	$310	$310
Downs SFW	$335	$333	$333	$337
Downs sorghum	$340	$340	$315	$320
Mel barley	$320	$320	$320	$320
Mel ASW	$350	$360	$350	$355

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Increased activity in bulk chickpea and faba bean trading, for upcoming cargoes, and a lack of harvest pressure on prices has put a firmer tone into the Downs barley market.

“The market’s got a bit of heat about it,” one trader said.

“A lot of consumers ran their stocks down; they were expecting massive pressure on prices at harvest time, and it didn’t happen.”

The delivered Brisbane price for chickpeas to go into bulk cargoes is now $620-$625/t, up $10$15 from last week, and faba beans at above $400/t are also attracting some selling interest from growers.

Between finishing harvest and delivering pulses in bulk for export, some consumers are finding it difficult to get growers to sell and deliver grain at current values.

Another trader said hail damage on the southern Downs earlier this month has tightened up supplies of wheat and barley available to local feedmills.

“The big white header might have made it a little bit hard to get grain in the short term for piggeries, dairies and stockfeed mills.”

While poultry mills are seen as well covered, some Downs feedlots are said to be short on near-term grain supplies, and growers have little interest in pricing anything ahead of rain forecast for coming days.

Many Queensland growers have finished harvest, as have those from the Moree district north in NSW.

Sunrise Commodities managing director Scott Merson said ahead of forecast rain,  some northern growers were harvesting wheat, despite it having a moisture content above the maximum 12.5 percent.

“Some stuff’s coming off at 15pc, and the grower will blend that with what they harvested earlier to get it to the right level.”

Mr Merson said barley and chickpeas appear to be the cash sell for growers.

“We’ve seen very little wheat change hands.”

“We’re seeing it slowly grinding stronger on lack of grower selling.”

Forecasts point to 15-60mm of rain falling over southern Qld in coming days.

“There’s a fair bit of sorghum planting going on ahead of this rain.”

Trade sources estimate the Downs sorghum crop was around 80pc planted before topsoil got too dry to continue planting, and the balance will go into the ground ahead of rain due to start tomorrow.

Harvest in southern NSW is advancing in mostly fine conditions, but showers and cold weather have made for a slow start in SA and Vic.

Bunge’s receival figures tell the story, with 44,658t delivered in the week to Sunday, while GrainCorp received 940,800t in the week to Monday at its up-country NSW sites, but only 24,000t at its Victorian ones.

Pinion Advisory broker Brad Knight said the Vic harvest has been slow to start.

“They’re trying to get harvest cranking but it’s been very cold, there have been showers, and today there’s a total fire ban in the Mallee,” Mr Knight said.

Lighter cereal crops in parts of the Mallee have been cut for hay, but cool and damp conditions have made baling at sufficiently low moisture a challenge.

“All paddock operations will be squeezing into a very tight window.

“There’ll be a lot of area to cover in a very short space of time.”

Estimates put the Mallee harvest at roughly 30-40pc through, comprising mostly barley and lentils, with a little canola, and wheat yet to start.

“In the Wimmera, we won’t see headers going for another week to 10 days, though there has been a bit of canola come off.”

The fitful start to the Vic harvest has some consumers paying up to $380/t for ASW-type wheat for prompt delivery.

Tags: export, barley, prices, wheat, crop, chickpea, pulses, faba bean, sorghum