Australia: Growers hold ahead of forecast southern rain

Season-opening rain is on the forecast for the upcoming long weekend in South Australia, Victoria, and parts of southern New South Wales that need it.

As growers look to finalise their planting ahead of the later-than-ideal break, their interest in selling wheat and barley is expected to remain minimal until new-crop prospects consolidate, and the new financial year arrives on July 1.

Much of the past week’s trade activity has been confined to accumulation for a few export wheat cargoes which have switched to NSW and Brisbane ports from SA and Vic, where drought demand is supporting up-country rates.

With the stronger Australian dollar and the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere’s early new crop, prompt bulk export demand is thin, and domestic consumers are buying only modest amounts.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Growers in Queensland and northern NSW are generally finishing planting their wheat and moving on to chickpeas, and Central Qld growers are concurrently finishing their sorghum harvest.

All up, growers are reluctant sellers after quitting some or most of their 2024-25 cereals and/or most or all of their sorghum at harvest.

“Come July, there’ll be more pressure on them to sell with the end of the financial year come and gone, and when storage costs start to kick in with bulk handlers,” one trader said.

Crop-establishment conditions remain ideal across much of the northern region, and above-average wheat and barley yields appear well and truly possible at this early stage of the growing season.

Major bulk handlers are believed to be the entities which have shifted a wheat cargo or two from south to north, and local traders report deals appear to be occurring in-house.

“It’s not creating any demand that I’m seeing.

“There are a few trade shorts with consumers; that’s about it.”

Aside from accumulation of bulk cargoes out of CQ, sorghum business in southern Qld and northern NSW has wound down to container trade.

“That will keep things ticking over.”

Another trade source said Darling Downs growers were mostly sold out of wheat, barley, and sorghum, but those on the western Downs, in the border region, and south into the Moree district of northern NSW, were mostly still holding cereals.

In contrast to the north’s drought years of 2017 to 2019, the interstate spread is nowhere near big enough to prompt volume movement of grain across a border or two.

This is because grain stocks in the south are being bolstered by exporters and traders making grain available to those with livestock to feed, or feedmills.

“Everyone’s pulled a few boats in the south; that’s helping to keep their grain prices down,” the northern trade source said of the southern market.

Others have observed that southern traders are looking to get involved in northern markets, and not just to source grain for clients in SA, Vic, and southern NSW.

“There are three or four guys wanting to trade up here, and it’s good for us; it’s more competition, which brings more depth to the market.”

In South Australia, AW Vater & Co principal trader Kim Vater said the region around Saddleworth has had roughly 4-15mm of recent rain.

“That’s not a season-opening rain; hopefully we’ll get a bit on the weekend,” Mr Vater said.

Across SA, most paddocks were sown dry, and in his region, Mr Vater said crops have had just enough rain to germinate but not establish.

“We are desperate to see a rain in the next two weeks to get those crops going properly.

“Everywhere you go, there are not too many places you drive in SA where you can see green crops.”

“I’ve never seen it this dry and such a late start to the season.”

While hay reserves have dwindled in SA and Vic, Mr Vater said grain was still available.

“We’ve been chasing barley in the past few days, and been pleasantly surprised to find out how much is still around.”

Tags: wheat, crop, demand, sorghum, export, barley, planting