Australia exports 1,596,844t wheat in May

Australia exported 1,596,844 tonnes of wheat and no durum in May, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The May total is down 14 percent from the 1,848,534t, including 3801t of durum, shipped in April, and close to half the 3.3 million tonnes (Mt) exported in May 2023.

In containerised exports, Malaysia on 34,814t, Taiwan on 23,035t and Thailand on 21,815t were the three largest markets.

In bulk, The Philippines on 314,857t followed by Indonesia on 244,111t and South Korea on 164,780t were the biggest markets for May-shipped wheat, followed by Yemen on 155,901t.

According to Lachstock Consulting’s most recent wheat supply-and-demand report released June 28, Australia is expected to export less than 1Mt of wheat in June, which would be the lowest monthly volume since November 2020.

Australia’s bulk wheat exports to China have trended down sharply in recent months, with the May total at 116,285t less than one quarter of the 516,295t shipped in April.

This indicates China’s switch to new-crop Northern Hemisphere grain, including its own.

“The screws keep tightening on the major exporters’ balance sheets, with the USDA cutting Russian production by 5Mt in June and Ukraine and EU by 1.5Mt each,” the Lachstock report said.

“The USDA offset the production cuts by lowering global feed use by over 4Mt,.

“Global ending stocks were lowered by a further 1.3Mt to 252.3Mt, the lowest ending-stocks number since 2014-15, and when you exclude China, you get the lowest ending stocks since 2007-08.”

The size of the Russian crop has been hotly debated and after the initial panic over the dry spring and a number of frost events resulting in up to 10Mt in production cuts, some estimates are now being revised back up.

“The range is wide, with estimates anywhere from 75Mt to 85Mt.

“We are unlikely to know the true size of the crop until we get through the 2024-25 export program.”

Lachstock referenced Russian offers in the latest GASC tender to supply Egypt were US$38/t lower than the previous tender, suggesting Russia has “plenty of grain to move”.

Lachstock

Table 1: Australian containerised wheat exports for March, April and May 2024. Source: ABS

Table 1: Australian bulk wheat exports for March, April and May 2024. Source: ABS

Tags: export, wheat, Thailand, Malaysia, stocks, Taiwan, markets, Australia, China