Australia: Cottonseed out, south slow on volume

Cottonseed is making a hasty exit from feedlot rations in the north, where harvest is all but over, and the painfully slow start to harvest in Victoria has boosted prices ahead of new crop becoming readily available.

Chickpeas in the north and canola in the south are far more popular sells than cereals in both regions, although some short covering of wheat and barley is creating some near-term business.

On the export front, southern barley is being accumulated, and providing competition to consumers who were expecting prices to be pressured by harvest volumes, as can sometimes occur in mid-November.

	Prompt Nov 13	Prompt Nov 20	Jan Nov 13	Jan Nov 20
Downs barley	$313	$315	$310	$315
Downs SFW	$333	$335	$337	$335
Downs sorghum	$340	$340	$320	$325
Mel barley	$320	$335	$320	$330
Mel ASW	$350	$355	$350	$360

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Trade sources say feedlots have jettisoned cottonseed from their mix due to its expense relative to canola meal, and difficulty in executing contracts.

“I’m completely out of cottonseed until May; we’re on full canola meal until then,” one buyer said.

Industry estimates say plenty of cottonseed remains in the trade’s hands, but the price has climbed in recent weeks to $580-$600/t delivered.

“Canola meal is $525/t delivered; it doesn’t make sense to feed cottonseed.”

Some smaller feedlots are continuing to use cottonseed because of it is easier for them to store and handle than canola meal.

However, smaller yards’ inclusion rates for cottonseed are down from around 10 percent to 5pc because of the high price.

They are believed to be picking up parcels from larger feedlots, who have washed out contracts and switched to canola meal, at least until new-crop becomes available from northern gins from May 2026.

“Cottonseed has run out,” one trade source said, speculating that drought demand in the first half of the year from Victorian dairies in particular may have captured an unexpectedly large chunk of current-crop seed.

“Feedlots are switching out of cottonseed and getting into canola meal, and looking for more barley for roughage,” one broker said.

Barley and wheat prices have strengthened this week.

“The grower has done a pretty good job of keeping it back from the market,” Sunrise Commodities managing director Scott Merson said.

Robinson Grain trader Anthony Furse said December feedgrain was sitting at around $5/t over January as some consumers lift their bids to get covered into the New Year.

“Things are drifting higher,” Mr Furse said.

“There’s stuff on farm and stuff in depots, but growers are saying: ‘Prices are too cheap; I’ll talk to you in the New Year.”

Some bulk handlers, including GrainCorp, are offering free storage until June 30, which has pulled considerable tonnage into depots.

Mr Furse said growers were also holding grain on farm, in part as a hedge against the possibility of dry conditions setting in.

Export demand for barley and ASW-type wheat out of Brisbane remains thin.

“We are above export parity, so it’s a tug of war between the consumer and grower.”

Trade sources say some consumers are covered into the second or third quarter of 2026, while others have jacked up their bids to cover themselves for coming weeks.

Chickpea values have firmed in the past week, and are now at around $645/t delivered Brisbane as exporters look to finish buying for upcoming cargoes.

This is tying up trucks running from farms or depots to port or cargo-accumulation points, and making some growers less likely to sell and deliver cereals in the near term.

Traders report patchy conditions for sorghum in southern Queensland, the last of which was planted in the past week or two.

“With these sort of sorghum prices, and not being super confident in production yet, growers are not sellers at all,” Mr Furse said.

Harvest progress remains slow in Vic and South Australia, with unseasonably cool conditions and mostly light rain delaying the ripening and drying down of wheat and barley.

Baling has also been slow, with cut crops struggling to drop moisture to required levels.

Pinion Advisory Horsham-based brokerAndy Brown said it has been “an amazingly cool finish”.

“We need three hot days just to ripen the crop…and we might get them over the weekend,” Mr Brown said.

The mild finish finish has piled yield on to crops in the Wimmera, Western District, and parts of the Mallee.

“What the cool finish has done to yields is unbelievable; some guys who have started [harvest] in the Mallee are half to a tonne above what they thought they’d get.”

The delayed start to harvest has caught some consumers short.

“Some of the domestic buyers had cover to the start or middle of November, and a few have had to go the market.

“That has been a positive for cleaning out the last stocks on farm.”

Lentil prices remain at least $200/t below their values in the high $800s this time last year, and very few are being sold off the header.

Growers with canola are selling it into a buoyant export market, or to domestic crushers, and new-crop malting barley is also being sold.

“Malt barley has a $10 spread to feed, growers are saying ‘I’ll take the premium’ before barley becomes barley.”

Barley test weights of up to 72kg per hectolitre, well above the 62.5kg minimum for BAR1, are further buoying production prospects for Vic.

However, high screenings are evident in some wheat and barley crops on the plains and outer slopes of southern New South Wales, where crops were too far advanced to benefit from recent rain.

“You’ve certainly got to pay up for wheat for November-December,” Wilken Grain trader Andrew Kelso said.

“New-crop prices are a bit stronger too, and barley has lifted.

Barley prices have firmed in the south in the past week as export demand kicks in.

“We’re competitive into China and the Middle East.”

On wheat, shorts are paying up to $375/t for ASW delivered Melbourne consumer.

“Growers aren’t selling yet; they might sell a bit of canola, and they’ll sell a little bit of barley off the header.

Tags: export, barley, canola, prices, wheat, chickpeas, canola meal, cottonseed, sorghum