Australia: Chickpea price plummets as Indian demand underwhelms

Prices for chickpeas delivered to Queensland sites have fallen by up to $250 per tonne in response to harvest pressure, and India’s continued absence from the market.

This is despite it removing its tariff on chickpeas, which was expected to prompt a fast and furious shipping program bookended by the start of the Qld harvest and the closure of the tariff-free period on 31 March 2025.

Trade sources say Pakistan has emerged as the destination for the first two new-crop cargoes shipped this month from Qld, and that prices have now fallen to a level expected to attract buying interest from India and Bangladesh, as well as Pakistan.

“I haven’t heard of any bulk vessels going into India, but Pakistan is very vocal; they’ve got seven vessels going from September to January,” one trader said.

Up-country depots in Qld are currently bidding on average around $710-$735/t for chickpeas, down from more than $1000/t early last month.

Trade sources say the price drop has occurred in response to volume selling from growers at higher rates.

With around one third of the Australian crop forecast at 1.5-1.7 million tonnes now harvested, the trade is now confident that volume to supply prompt shipment cargoes is available.

This has taken the premium related to concerns about widespread rain in the early part of harvest out of the market, and allowed it to fall to a level many are expecting will buy it volume demand from south Asia.

“The market’s safer once it’s at a level that’s palatable for a buyer,” the trade source said.

While India was expected to book up all available new-crop chickpeas, Pakistan, which has reshaped itself as a bulk rather than boxed market in recent years, has been the volume buyer thus far.

“Some people started to offer short into Pakistan,” a trader said.

That business commenced when growers were being offered A$1000/t, and the Pakistan market was US$810-$820/t cfr, which has now fallen to around US$720/t.

Trade sources think the market is now low enough to buy itself volume demand from other destinations too, and if growers keep selling, the 500,000t or so booked to ship out of Qld by February will be executed.

“Initially, people thought we wouldn’t be able to get the crop out on time; we’re going to get it out,” one trade source said.

If growers pull back on their selling, those with slots booked on shipping stems may well switch into wheat cargoes made possible by a high-volume and good-quality cereal harvest.

Likewise, growers may start selling wheat rather than chickpeas as their cash crop if export demand for wheat becomes evident, and will squirrel away their chickpeas for selling later this marketing year, or beyond.

“If a trader has a whole heap of chickpea transactions made at A$1000/t plus, and they have to sell it at $800/t in the export market, they might decide to ship something else.”

While India is still believed to have a chickpea deficit, prospects for the rabi crop now being planted are good, but may not stay that way if the season deteriorates.

‘There’s talk in the trade that the (Indian) market’s going to stay open.”

In order to promote domestic chickpea production, India imposed its chickpea tariff of 66 percent in 2018.

News of  the tariff’s removal in May immediately saw up-country prices for Australian chickpeas eclipse $1000/t, and clear out old-crop stocks.

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Tags: chickpeas, crop, forecast, Market, shipment, tariff, Australia, prices, Pakistan, India