ASF Ukraine: tightening grip on domestic pork market

Recent African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks hampered farmgate prices on the Ukrainian pork market, the Ukrainian Pig Farmers Association estimated. Heatwaves and waning demand also put pressure on prices.

In 2024, Ukraine registered 58 ASF outbreaks, 18 of which occurred at backyard farms, and 13 at commercial pig farms, the Ukrainian State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection has recently revealed. Despite the measures taken by veterinary services to tackle the disease the number of outbreaks seem to increase compared to the previous year.

Oleg Osian, deputy head of the Ukrainian regulator, said that the biggest risk group in terms of ASF occurrence are still backyard farms.

He also emphasised the crucial role of farmers in this battle, urging them to immediately contact veterinary officials if they suspect their animals have contracted ASF. This proactive approach is key to controlling the spread of the disease. “Any attempts to independently get out of this situation will only further complicate it and will contribute to the further spread of the infection,” Osian said.

Dead pigs infected with ASF have been repeatedly found outside of production sites in Ukraine. Follow-up investigations usually show that farm owners try to get rid of the infected animals over concerns that if the outbreak is properly reported, veterinary officials will shut their farms down.

At the end of August, the average price of pork in live weight dropped by 6% to UAH 58.2 ($1.41) per kg, the Association of Ukrainian Pig Farmers estimated.

ASF was named among the main factors contributing to the decline. In addition, recent heatwaves impacted the average yields in the pig industry across the country. However, the primary factor driving the negative dynamics was the “regional disproportion in prices,” as in the eastern regions, the demand for pigs appeared to be exceptionally low, much weaker than in the west.

In June 2024, the price of pork in live weight dropped to UAH 46.3 ($1.12) per kg, the lowest price in 2 years, the Ukrainian Club of Agricultural Business (UCAB) estimated. Although the price bounced back a little in the next weeks, analysts warned that the figure got dangerously close to the breakeven point.

Maksym Gopko, a UCAB analyst, said that a mix of factors contributes to the dynamics. He explained that power outages and mobilisation led to a decrease in demand.

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Tags: demand, Ukraine, pork, prices, African Swine Fever, Production, ASF, Market, outbreaks