Argentina to reduce wheat and corn production in 2026/27 — USDA

Argentina’s wheat and corn production is expected to decline in the MY 2026/27 due to slightly smaller harvested areas and lower yields, according to the USDA Agricultural Attaché in Buenos Aires. The sharpest decline is forecast for wheat, with Argentina expected to drop out of the world’s top 10 wheat-producing countries.

USDA projects Argentina’s wheat crop to fall from the record 27.92 mln tons harvested in 2025/26 to 21.6 mln tons in 2026/27. Average yields are forecast at 3.27 t/ha, down from more than 4.1 t/ha a year earlier, while harvested area is expected to decrease from 6.8 mln ha to 6.6 mln ha. Wheat exports are projected to decline from 18.5 mln tons to 15.5 mln tons, with ending stocks falling to 2.65 mln tons.

According to USDA, the record 2025/26 wheat crop was largely the result of exceptionally favorable weather conditions. Those conditions are not expected to be repeated in the upcoming season, leading to a significant production decline and pushing Argentina out of the world’s top 10 wheat producers.

Corn production is also forecast to decrease, although less sharply than wheat. The crop is expected to reach 60.5 mln tons, compared with the record 63 mln tons harvested in 2025/26. Planted area is projected to decline by 200,000 ha to 8 mln ha, while average yields are forecast at 7.56 t/ha, down slightly from 7.68 t/ha. The reduction is mainly attributed to corn leafhopper infestations and corn stunt disease in northern Argentina during the previous season.

Despite the smaller harvest, Argentina’s corn exports are expected to remain relatively stable at 42.5 mln tons, only 0.5 mln tons below the previous season. Meanwhile, ending corn stocks are forecast to decline from 6.7 mln tons to 5.6 mln tons, indicating a gradual tightening of domestic supplies.