Argentina to cut wheat production by a quarter in MY 2026/27

Argentina’s wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year is expected to decline by 25% from the previous season’s record high, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA). Output is forecast at 20.7 million tonnes, down from 27.8 million tonnes, reflecting lower yields and reduced input use amid weaker farm margins.

Average yields are projected at 3.2 tonnes per hectare, above historical norms but well below the exceptional 4.3 tonnes per hectare achieved in 2025/26. However, favorable soil moisture and expectations of sufficient winter rainfall could partially offset the impact of lower fertilizer application.

Wheat exports are forecast to fall to 14.5 million tonnes from 19 million tonnes a year earlier. Despite the decline, Argentina is expected to remain a key global supplier, supported by recent re-entry into the Chinese market.

Corn production in 2026/27 is projected at 56.5 million tonnes, down 7% year-on-year, driven by lower yields and rising domestic demand.

Corn exports are also expected to ease to 39.5 million tonnes, though Argentina would still rank as the world’s third-largest exporter after the US and Brazil. Domestic corn use is forecast to hit a record 19.1 million tonnes, supported by expansion in feed demand and ethanol production.

A higher ethanol blending mandate of up to 15% is expected to further support corn consumption, potentially increasing ethanol demand by around 25%. Overall, analysts note that Argentina’s grain sector is moving toward normalization after several record production seasons, with output returning closer to long-term averages.

Tags: wheat, Argentina, crop forecast