Argentina raises wheat production forecast to 23.8 mln tons

Argentina could harvest 23.8 mln tons of wheat in the MY 2026/27, marking the country’s second-largest crop on record. The Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR) has raised its production forecast by 2.8 mln tons from September’s estimate of 21 mln tons. The 13.3% upward revision reflects higher-than-previously-expected yields.

The most favorable crop prospects are currently seen in Santa Fe province, where average wheat yields could approach 4 t/ha. This would slightly exceed the expected yields in Buenos Aires province, traditionally one of Argentina’s main wheat-growing regions. Favorable growing conditions have allowed analysts to significantly improve their production estimates.

Below-normal temperatures in early spring have been an important factor supporting wheat development and improving crop prospects. However, the limited number of sunny days remains a concern and could affect further crop development. Argentina’s wheat harvest is expected to begin in November, meaning final production volumes will depend on weather conditions over the coming weeks.

A significant increase in wheat production could strengthen Argentina’s position in the global export market and intensify competition with other major suppliers, particularly those from the Black Sea region. The arrival of the new crop on international markets in late 2026 could increase available wheat supplies and put additional pressure on global prices.

Meanwhile, production forecasts for Argentina’s other major agricultural crops remain unchanged. The Rosario Grain Exchange maintained its 2026/27 soybean production estimate at 47.8 mln tons and its corn forecast at 67.5 mln tons.

Tags: wheat, forecast, Argentina