Argentina could be the main beneficiary of Black Sea grain export disruptions — StoneX

Ukraine and russia together account for about 28% of global wheat exports and around 10% of corn exports. According to analysts, given such a high concentration of supplies, the market does not even need an actual decline in exports to react with higher prices. The risk that grain may not be shipped through the Black Sea at its usual pace is enough. Attacks on export infrastructure and civilian vessels are already increasing risk premiums for wheat and corn.

StoneX sees Argentina as the main potential beneficiary of the situation. The country has ample grain supplies thanks to a record corn harvest, while prospects for the new wheat crop also remain favorable. The government’s cuts to agricultural export taxes provide an additional advantage, making Argentine grain more competitive on the global market.

Brazil could also benefit from additional demand if Black Sea supplies are disrupted, but its ability to fill the gap is considerably more limited. Strong domestic corn consumption and the need to build stocks for the next season are reducing the country’s exportable surplus and could make Brazilian grain less competitive.

At the same time, it would be difficult to quickly and fully replace Black Sea supplies with grain from other origins. The scale of Ukrainian and russian exports remains so significant that further disruptions to ports and shipping could not only redirect demand toward South America but also keep risk premiums elevated across the global grain market.

Tags: grain, Brazil, wheat, Argentina, corn