AMIS forecasts 8.5% decline in global wheat trade amid Black Sea disruptions

Global wheat trade in the MY 2026/27 could decline by 8.5% to 193.2 mln tons, compared with 211.2 mln tons in the previous season. According to the November report from the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), the trade forecast was also lowered by 2.2 mln tons from the October estimate of 195.4 mln tons. The main reason for the downward revision was logistical constraints in the Black Sea region, which are restricting wheat shipments from Ukraine and Russia to international markets.

Meanwhile, AMIS raised its forecast for global wheat production in 2026/27 by 5.2 mln tons to 819.1 mln tons, compared with 813.9 mln tons in October. The upward revision reflects more favorable weather conditions in Turkey and higher-than-expected yields in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia. Despite the improved outlook, global wheat production is still expected to remain below the previous season’s level of 842.5 mln tons.

Against the backdrop of declining international trade, global wheat ending stocks could increase to 360.6 mln tons, compared with 346 mln tons in 2025/26. The stocks forecast was raised by 7.6 mln tons from October. According to AMIS, rising inventories in Asian countries and export logistics difficulties in the Black Sea region are contributing to stock accumulation, leaving part of the wheat supply in domestic markets of producing countries.

The forecast for global corn production in 2026/27 was raised by 16 mln tons to 1.318 bln tons, reflecting improved crop prospects in Argentina, Brazil, India and the United States. However, production would remain below the previous season’s 1.325 bln tons. Global corn trade could increase to 208.2 mln tons from 203.8 mln tons a year earlier, mainly due to higher exports from South America. Corn demand is also supported by bioethanol production in Brazil and the US, along with rising feed consumption in Asia, North Africa and Latin America. Global corn ending stocks are forecast at 328.8 mln tons.

Global soybean production in 2026/27 is estimated at 441.1 mln tons, compared with 431.8 mln tons in the previous season. Despite higher production, the forecast for global soybean ending stocks was lowered to 67.9 mln tons, compared with 71.2 mln tons a year earlier and 70 mln tons in the October estimate. The main reason was lower opening soybean inventories in China. Meanwhile, global soybean trade is forecast at 190 mln tons, up from 187.4 mln tons in the previous season, while crushing demand is expected to increase mainly in the Americas and Vietnam.

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, global market