AI supports global growth but could reshape 40% of jobs — IMF

The investment boom in artificial intelligence is helping keep global economic growth at around 3% despite the negative impact of the energy supply shock. According to the IMF, Asian economies that play a major role in producing AI hardware and infrastructure are among the biggest beneficiaries.

In advanced Asian economies, AI could add 0.5–1 percentage point to economic growth, while emerging Asian economies could gain 0.2–0.8 percentage point. In July, the IMF forecast global growth at 3% in 2026 and is expected to release an updated outlook shortly.

At the same time, technological change is set to have a major impact on labor markets. The IMF estimates that AI could eventually augment, downgrade or eliminate around 40% of jobs. In the United States, roughly 10% of jobs already require AI-related skills, while demand for some routine occupations is declining.

A particular concern is the weakening demand for entry-level jobs for young graduates. Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam said the first step on the career ladder is already seeing less demand, warning that without active policies AI could further widen the gap between advanced and developing economies.

Meanwhile, the World Bank sees significant potential in so-called “small AI,” which does not depend on large language models. Such tools could boost productivity for farmers, healthcare systems and educators in emerging markets, while helping offset some employment risks through new technologies and job opportunities.

Tags: IMF, AI