AHDB says latest forecasts show global pork production to shift whilst volumes hold steady

AHDB reports on USDA’s latest quarterly outlook for global red meat.

The USDA forecasts 2025 global pork production to be almost unchanged on the year at 116.7 Mt as increased Brazilian and US production (driven by lower feed costs) counterbalances losses in the EU and China.

The USDA attributes a 1% decrease in EU pig production to shifting consumer preferences, spread of animal disease, and regulations.

Lower Chinese pig slaughter is driven by reduced sow numbers driven by lower pricing and continued industry contraction as well as improved pig performance with higher piglet numbers reducing the need for larger sow inventories.

Forecast pork production, year-on-year change 2025 versus 2024

Original data source: USDA

Global pork trade is anticipated to be slightly muted in 2025 compared to 2024. Reduced exports from major producers like the EU and Canada are expected, due to reduced exportable supply and reduced demand in key markets due to economic uncertainty – specifically in Asia.

The US is also expected to see a decrease in pork exports throughout 2025, attributed by the USDA to market uncertainties. Meanwhile, pork exports from Brazil are primed for growth, as Brazil takes advantage of the unstable trade situation and its lower production costs to pivot towards new opportunities.

Tags: AHDB, forecast, exports, red meat, USDA, pig, pork, sow, Brazil, inventories, EU, trade, Canada, US, Production