Ag records to tumble for Aussie farmers
It’s set to be a record breaking year for Australian farmers thanks to strong growing conditions and high global prices according to a report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
If forecasts are realised, Australia’s agricultural production will reach a record $78 billion in 2021/22, with the most valuable winter crop ever expected worth $22.3 billion.
Meanwhile agricultural exports are also likely to hit a record $61 billion.
ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said the good results are expected to be enjoyed across livestock and cropping, with 30-year price highs being experienced.
“It would be the first time in at least half a century that production will increase for so many products at the same time,” Dr Greenville.
The promising outlook for agriculture is partly driven by poor seasonal conditions felt by some of Australia’s international competitors like the US, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Russia.
The report released on Tuesday found production shortfalls in the global grain supply, particularly of wheat and canola, with reduced supply meaning higher international prices.
While analysts concluded that the winter crop will be only slightly larger than the previous record in 2016/17, prices are forecast to be 35 per cent higher.
The forecasts come despite losses and quality downgrades from recent flooding and inundation along the east coast.
Minister for Agriculture and Northern Australia David Littleproud said the latest ABARES forecasting confirms the recent heavy rain has hurt eastern state producers, but that agriculture nationally is enjoying exceptional growing conditions and high world commodity prices.
“This latest forecast demonstrates the extraordinary role farmers are playing in the nation’s economic recovery,” Mr Littleproud said.
“Production is expected to increase for every major livestock commodity and almost every major crop, our farmers are expected to produce the largest volume ever.”
Dr Greenville said while heavy rain in eastern Australia has led to harvest delays and some crop losses, it’s unlikely to have a significant impact on Australia’s national harvest tonnage.
“The larger impact will be on grain quality, with a higher than usual proportion of the crop being lower-value feed-grade wheat,” he said.
The report found La Nina conditions will see above average rain continue to fall in eastern and northern Australia bringing with it good growing conditions in 2022.
While stored irrigation water is at its highest level since the 2017/18 peak.
But producers are expected to see global fertiliser prices continue to rise, partly because of restrictions on the amount of fertiliser being exported by China and Russia – the world’s two largest producers.
Australia imports most of its fertiliser needs.
Dr Greenville said Australia’s uplift in production value and volume is unprecedented, but it’s unclear how long growers will experience these favourable conditions.
“There is uncertainty how long prices will remain at these levels – and supply chain disruptions, higher fertiliser prices and heavy rainfall domestically will continue to be watch points,” he said.
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