After a long fall, soybean and rapeseed prices rose slightly due to weather factors

Quotes on rapeseed and soybeans have been falling sharply for several weeks under the pressure of lower world prices for vegetable oils and a possible decline in demand due to the global economic recession. In addition, they were pressured by forecasts of increased yields in the new season, but the reversal in the market of palm oil led to a slight adjustment in prices.

Against the background of heat in the US on the Chicago Stock Exchange in July, soybean futures for two sessions rose by 2.2% to $ 599 / t, and November – by 1.1% to $ 526 / t, although two weeks earlier they fell by 10.9% and 10.8%, respectively. The market is waiting for an updated USDA crop report, which will be released on June 30. Analysts believe that soybean sowing areas will be reduced compared to March estimates from 90.96 to 90.466 million acres (87.2 million acres in the previous season).

In a June report, Oil World experts raised the forecast for world soybean production in 2022/23 MY to a record 385.1 million tons. Compared to the current season, soybean production in the United States will grow by 5 million tons to 125.7 million tons, in Brazil – by 18 up to 144 million tons, Argentina – by 3.2 to 45 million tons, Paraguay – by 6 to 10 million tons, China – by 1.8 to 18.2 million tons. 12.3 million tons to 98 million tons.

World rapeseed production in 2022/23 MY may reach a record 72.8 million tons, as Canada will increase compared to 2021/22 MY canola production from 12.6 to 19.6 million tons, and the EU – from 17.39 to 18, At the same time, the harvest in Australia will decrease from 7 to 6.5 million tons, in India – from 10.3 to 10.1 million tons, in Ukraine – from 3.13 to 2.6 million tons. 2022/23 MR increased by 2.2 million tons to 7.55 million tons.

August rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF yesterday fell another 15 € / t to 681.5 € / t or 720.9 $ / t, losing 27.7% in two weeks after falling prices for vegetable oils and against the background the intentions of the EU countries to reduce the share of mandatory biofuel content.

November canola futures fell 25.4% in two weeks, but rose 5.3% to 890 CAD / t or $ 692 / t on Monday, down 20.8% from last month. Excessive rainfall in Saskatchewan, the country’s main canola producer, has damaged some crops and is now subject to adverse weather conditions, so the market expects new crop data and yield forecasts from Statistics Canada.

According to the June estimates of the European agency MARS, in Ukraine the production of rapeseed will increase compared to last year from 2.93 to 3.776 million tons, while soybeans will decrease from 3.492 to 3.19 million tons, and sunflower – from 16.4 to 12.09 million tons

Prices for soybeans and sunflowers in Ukraine fell to UAH 11,000-13,000 / t or $ 376-445 / t with delivery to the plant under the pressure of declining demand for vegetable oils and the impossibility of exporting meal.

Following the European market, rapeseed prices have fallen to $ 650-670 / t with delivery to Germany or Poland, but traders plan to resume purchasing rapeseed for hryvnia at domestic elevators.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, China, prices, soybean, Canada, India, rapeseed, USA