Active export through the Black Sea ports keeps rapeseed prices in Ukraine at a high level

Purchase prices for rapeseed in the ports of Ukraine remain quite high, despite the decrease in quotations on world exchanges and demand prices from European consumers.

International traders increased the volume of purchases in the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk, as a result of which the purchase prices for rapeseed rose to UAH 17,000-17,500/t or $475-480/t with delivery to the port. While demand prices with delivery to DAP Poland, Romania or Bulgaria during the week decreased to $530-550/t.

A seasonal increase in canola supply on the European market and an increase in the EU production forecast by Strategie Grains experts are putting pressure on prices, especially given the active imports at the beginning of the season.

In 2022/23 MR, as of September 11, the EU imported 1.16 million tons of rapeseed, which is 40% higher than last year’s pace.

November futures on the Paris MATIF fell another 2.7% since the beginning of the week to 581.75 €/t or $582.11/t, losing 8.7% for the month and practically matching last year’s level of 587 €/t or 693 .2 $/t. However, the dollar price is significantly lower due to the fall in the euro, which will negatively affect the prospects for Canadian exporters.

Statistics Canada on September 14 lowered the forecast for canola production in the country in 2022 from 19.5 to 19.1 million tons, but raised the forecast for 2021 from 12.8 to 13.8 million tons, which will soften the situation somewhat .

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange fell during the week from CAD 800/t to CAD 786/t or $594/t (-3.7% for the month), compared to CAD 875.7/t a year ago or $690.3/t (as of September 15, 2021).

The volume of global supply of canola compared to the non-harvesting year of 2021 has increased significantly, so the difference between the prices of canola and soybeans has decreased from 50% to 14%.

In the current season, canola prices will depend on the soybean market, which remains under pressure from the reduced harvest in the United States. Quotations will also be influenced by oil prices, which for the Brent brand decreased by 3% to $91/barrel.

However, in Ukraine, the demand for rapeseed from exporters will remain stable, given the high trade margin, so purchase prices will not decrease significantly.

Currently, the weather in Ukraine favors the sowing of winter rapeseed, and as of September 12, 841,000 hectares or 87% of the planned area has been sown with it, compared to 1.16 million hectares in 2021.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, prices, Canada, rapeseed, Black Sea ports