Accelerated wheat harvest lowers stock quotes, but in Ukraine, yield data raises prices

Stock market quotes for wheat are trading 4.5-5.9% lower than a month ago, amid improving weather conditions in the US, but forecasts of a reduced harvest in Ukraine are being confirmed, which contributes to a further increase in export prices.

As of July 6, 53% of winter wheat in the United States has been threshed (62% last year and 54% on average for the past 5 years). The number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition remained flat at 48% during the week (51% last year), while spring wheat decreased by 3% to 50% (75% last year).

July wheat futures in the US fell yesterday:

• by 1.5% to $198.3/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (+2% for the week, 0% for the month),
• by 1.9% to $186.8/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+0.5%, -5.9%),
• by 1.5% to $228.1/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.8%, -5.2%).

September wheat futures on the Paris-based Euronext exchange rose 0.1% yesterday to €196/t or $230.1/t (+0.5%, -4.5%).

Markets are concerned about the pace of exports from the US due to uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy, so the net short position in wheat contracts is decreasing.

President Trump has announced that tariffs will increase from August 1 on goods from Indonesia to 32%, South Korea and Japan to 25%, Myanmar and Laos to 40%, Thailand and Cambodia to 36%, Serbia and Bangladesh to 35%, South Africa to 30%, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Tunisia to 25%. This could dramatically reduce U.S. wheat supplies to major trading partners Japan, Indonesia and South Korea.

In Ukraine, as of July 4, 2025, 277.8 thousand tons of wheat were threshed from 107.4 thousand hectares with a yield of 2.59 tons/hectare, which is significantly lower than at the start of the last season. Low yields in the south, caused by drought, lead to an increase in export purchase prices for wheat, which rose by another $2-3/ton in a week to 10,000–10,200 UAH/ton or $210–212/ton for food wheat and to 9,500–9,600 UAH/ton or $200–202/ton for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the MY 2024/25, Ukraine reduced wheat exports compared to the previous season by 15% to 15.62 million tons, of which 3.2 million tons were purchased by Spain, 2.1 million tons by Egypt, and 1.9 million tons by Algeria. In the new season, due to the reduction in quotas, deliveries to the EU will be reduced to 1.5 million tons, so export volumes will decrease.

The Russian government has reduced the export duty on wheat to 0%, which will support high prices for farmers at the start of the season and compensate for the decline in export prices, which are currently $217-219/t FOB for wheat with 11.5% protein and $224-226/t FOB for 12.5%.

In the southwest of the Russian Federation, winter wheat has been threshed on 1/3 of the area, and data on yield vary, but overall it is the same or slightly lower than last year.

Against the backdrop of declining global demand and increasing competition with European wheat, prices will remain at $220-230/t FOB until the end of the harvest and the determination of the actual harvest in exporting countries.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat