ABARES sharply raises Australia’s canola production forecast

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has significantly raised its 2026/27 winter crop production forecasts following improved weather conditions. Compared with its June estimate, the overall production forecast was increased by 12% to 61 mln tons.

The main reason for the revision was better-than-expected winter rainfall across southern and southeastern Australia. The rainfall improved soil moisture reserves and boosted crop prospects across the country’s major producing regions.

Australia’s canola production is now forecast at 7.3 mln tons. This would be 5% below last year’s 7.7 mln tons but 37% above the 10-year average. Canola area increased by 2%, although lower yields in Western Australia are expected to limit overall production.

ABARES also raised its wheat production forecast by 12% from the June estimate, from 26.7 mln tons to 29.9 mln tons. This would be 3% above the 10-year average but 17% below last year due to an 11% decline in planted area. The barley production forecast was also increased from 14.1 mln tons to 16.4 mln tons, 30% above the 10-year average.

Australian growers have favoured barley over wheat this season due to its lower input requirements and the cost of some fertilizers. Barley area increased by 6% year-on-year, which, together with improved seasonal conditions, has strengthened the production outlook.

Tags: crop forecast, Australia, canola, ABARES