ABARES lifts forecasts for wheat, barley, canola
ABARES has lifted its forecasts for the Australian wheat, barley and canola crops now being harvested in its December 2021 Australian Crop Report released today.
Its forecast for wheat at 34.4 million tonnes (Mt) sets a new record, and is up 5.5 per cent from 32.6Mt estimated in the previous report released September 7.
ABARES has lifted its barley number by 6.5pc to 13.3Mt from 12.5Mt forecast in September, while the canola estimate at 5.7Mt is up 13.8pc from 5Mt seen in September.
On wheat, a 10pc increase in the size of the NSW crop and a 9.5pc in the estimate for Victoria have driven the national increase, supported by more modest upward revisions to Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.
This means NSW is once again expected to buck the trend for the second year running by producing a bigger wheat crop than WA.
| WHEAT PRODUCTION | 5yr avg to 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 Sep estimate | 2021-22 Dec estimate |
| Qld | 842,000 | 418,000 | 1,103,000 | 1,763,000 | 1,789,000 |
| NSW | 6,251,000 | 1,772,000 | 13,110,000 | 11,100,000 | 12,210,000 |
| Vic | 3,821,000 | 3,714,000 | 4,768,000 | 3,700,000 | 4,050,000 |
| Tas | 47,000 | 44,000 | 56,000 | 70,000 | 73,000 |
| SA | 4,140,000 | 2,689,000 | 4,800,000 | 4,500,000 | 4,600,000 |
| WA | 8,533,000 | 5,842,000 | 9,500,000 | 11,500,000 | 11,700,000 |
| TOTAL TONNES | 23,634,000 | 14,479,000 | 33,337,000 | 32,633,000 | 34,422,000 |
Table 1: Tonnes of wheat produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES
| WHEAT AREA | 5yr avg to 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 Sep estimate | 2021-22 Dec estimate |
| Qld | 575,000 | 441,000 | 750,000 | 750,000 | 795,000 |
| NSW | 2,871,000 | 2,132,000 | 3,800,000 | 3,700,000 | 3,700,000 |
| Vic | 1,467,000 | 1,429,000 | 1,600,000 | 1,520,000 | 1,520,000 |
| Tas | 8,000 | 7,000 | 10,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 |
| SA | 1,954,000 | 1,721,000 | 2,075,000 | 2,075,000 | 2,075,000 |
| WA | 4,397,000 | 4,133,000 | 4,750,000 | 4,900,000 | 4,900,000 |
| TOTAL HECTARES | 11,272,000 | 9,863,000 | 12,985,000 | 12,960,000 | 13,005,000 |
Table 2: Hectares of wheat planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES
| BARLEY PRODUCTION | 5yr avg to 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 Sep estimate | 2021-22 Dec estimate |
| Qld | 215,000 | 80,000 | 240,000 | 377,000 | 435,000 |
| NSW | 1,838,000 | 916,000 | 3,230,000 | 2,655,000 | 2,880,000 |
| Vic | 2,486 ,000 | 3,117,000 | 2,784,000 | 2,300,000 | 2,475,000 |
| Tas | 28,000 | 23,000 | 39,000 | 45,000 | 45,000 |
| SA | 2,175 ,000 | 1,995,000 | 2,400,000 | 2,200,000 | 2,250,000 |
| WA | 4,218 ,000 | 3,996,000 | 4,400,000 | 4,900,000 | 5,200,000 |
| TOTAL TONNES | 10,960 ,000 | 10,127,000 | 13,093,000 | 12,477,000 | 13,285,000 |
Table 3: Tonnes of barley produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES
| BARLEY AREA | 5yr avg to 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 Sep estimate | 2021-22 Dec estimate |
| Qld | 114,000 | 80,000 | 135,000 | 130,000 | 150,000 |
| NSW | 865,000 | 885,000 | 950,000 | 900,000 | 900,000 |
| Vic | 931,000 | 1,102,000 | 870,000 | 850,000 | 850,000 |
| Tas | 6,000 | 5,000 | 7,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 |
| SA | 930,000 | 1,061,000 | 860,000 | 850,000 | 850,000 |
| WA | 1,726,000 | 1,907,000 | 1,600,000 | 1,600,000 | 1,600,000 |
| TOTAL HECTARES | 4,572,000 | 5,040,000 | 4,422,000 | 4,340,000 | 4,360,000 |
Table 4: Hectares of barley planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES
| CANOLA PRODUCTION | 5yr avg to 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 Sep estimate | 2021-22 Dec estimate |
| Qld | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| NSW | 737,000 | 206,000 | 1,073,000 | 1,360,000 | 1,600,000 |
| Vic | 752,000 | 731,000 | 950,000 | 900,000 | 1,000,000 |
| Tas | 3,000 | 2,000 | 3,000 | 3,000 | 2,500 |
| SA | 315,000 | 241,000 | 375,000 | 370,000 | 375,000 |
| WA | 1,577,000 | 1,117,000 | 1,650,000 | 2,400,000 | 2,750,000 |
| TOTAL TONNES | 3,385,000 | 2,298,000 | 4,052,000 | 5,037,000 | 5,731,500 |
Table 5: Tonnes of canola produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES
| CANOLA AREA | 5yr avg to 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 Sep estimate | 2021-22 Dec estimate |
| Qld | 1,000 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
| NSW | 586,000 | 327,000 | 550,000 | 800,000 | 800,000 |
| Vic | 428,000 | 405,000 | 450,000 | 460,000 | 460,000 |
| Tas | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,300 |
| SA | 200,000 | 153,000 | 225,000 | 230,000 | 230,000 |
| WA | 1,262,000 | 1,148,000 | 1,150,000 | 1,550,000 | 1,550,000 |
| TOTAL HECTARES | 2,478,000 | 2,035,000 | 2,378,000 | 3,043,000 | 3,043,300 |
Table 6: Hectares of canola planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES
Source: ABARES
Read also
Indonesia’s soy consumption to rise
Corn extends rally on USDA’s unexpected large supply cuts
Asia wheat November roundup: Rains hamper Australian harvest; strong corn prices b...
Grains Mostly Higher Ahead of December WASDE. Tuesday, December 10, 2024
US pork exports on record pace – USMEF
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon