ABARES lifts forecasts for wheat, barley, canola
National forecaster ABARES has increased its forecasts for Australia’s three biggest winter crops in its quarterly Australian Crop Report released today.
Its national wheat estimate now stands at 34.1 million tonnes (Mt), the third-largest on record, up from 31.9Mt seen in December.
Canola is now seen at 5.9Mt, up from 5.6Mt in the previous forecast, and the fourth-largest crop on record, while barley at 13.3Mt is up from 11.7Mt seen in December to make it the fifth-largest crop on record.
“Grain receival data indicates that yields were better than expected, particularly in Western Australia and New South Wales, where total winter-crop production has been revised up 19 percent and 6pc respectively from the December 2024 forecast,” the ABARES report said.
“Poor seasonal conditions in South Australia and Victoria limited yield potential of winter crops, with total production estimated to be down 40 percent and 31pc respectively year on year.”
ABARES puts the total national winter crop, including pulses, as the third-largest on record at 59.8Mt.
Area planted to winter crops in 2024-25 is estimated to have increased by 8pc from 2023-24 to 24.9M hectares.
This is a new national record, driven by a greater area planted to winter crops in New South Wales, up 27pc year on year, and Queensland, up 38pc.
Favourable seasonal conditions at the time of planting led to area increases in both states, with many expanding into regions not normally sown to winter crops, such as north-west NSW.
| WHEAT | Dec 2024-25 ha | Dec 2024-25 tns | Mar 2024-25 ha | Mar 2024-25 tns |
| Qld | 900,000 | 2,230,000 | 900,000 | 2,230,000 |
| NSW | 3,800,000 | 12,400,000 | 3,900,000 | 12,900,000 |
| Vic | 1,500,000 | 3,450,000 | 1,500,000 | 3,500,000 |
| Tas | 10,000 | 60,000 | 10,000 | 60,000 |
| SA | 2,100,000 | 3,000,000 | 2,050,000 | 2,770,000 |
| WA | 4,750,000 | 10,750,000 | 4,700,000 | 12,650,000 |
| TOTAL | 13,060,000 | 31,890,000 | 13,060,000 | 34,056,000 |
Table 1: December 2024 estimates for Australia’s 2024-25 wheat area and tonnes produced, and latest estimates released today.
| BARLEY | Dec 2024-25 ha | Dec 2024-25 tns | Mar 2024-25 ha | Mar 2024-25 tns |
| Qld | 185,000 | 535,000 | 185,000 | 535,000 |
| NSW | 970,000 | 3,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 3,400,000 |
| Vic | 820,000 | 2,000,000 | 820,000 | 2,000,000 |
| Tas | 6,000 | 30,000 | 6,000 | 30,000 |
| SA | 810,000 | 1,450,000 | 810,000 | 1,300,000 |
| WA | 1,650,000 | 4,650,000 | 1,800,000 | 6,000,000 |
| TOTAL | 4,441,000 | 11,665,000 | 4,621,000 | 13,265,000 |
Table 2: December 2024 estimates for Australia’s 2024-25 barley area and tonnes produced, and latest estimates released today.
| CANOLA | Dec 2024-25 ha | Dec 2024-25 tns | Mar 2024-25 ha | Mar 2024-25 tns |
| Qld | 6,000 | 9,500 | 6,000 | 9,500 |
| NSW | 900,000 | 1,650,000 | 980,000 | 1,800,000 |
| Vic | 520,000 | 900,000 | 520,000 | 900,000 |
| Tas | 2,000* | 4,000* | 2,000 | 5,000 |
| SA | 260,000 | 325,000 | 260,000 | 325,000 |
| WA | 1,600,000 | 2,700,000 | 1,600,000 | 2,900,000 |
| TOTAL | 3,288,000 | 5,588,500 | 3,368,000 | 5,939,500 |
Table 3: December 2024 estimates for Australia’s 2024-25 canola area and tonnes produced, and latest estimates released today.
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