ABARES cuts summer crop outlook on lowered cotton, rice

ABARES has cut its forecast for Australia’s summer-crop production to 4.4 million tonnes (Mt) for 2025-26 from 4.5Mt seen in September.

The figure was released yesterday in ABARES’ quarterly Australian Crop Report, and reflects a significant fall in rice production in New South Wales, and a moderate drop in the state’s cotton lint and seed output.

Total national summer-crop production is forecast to be 15 percent down from the 2024-25 tonnage, but is 18pc above the 10-year average to 2024–25 of 3.8Mt.

Area planted to summer crops in 2025-6 is forecast to reach 1.3 million hectares, in line with the September report, but down 6pc on 2024-25 plantings.

The ABARES report cited the Bureau of Meteorology’s three-month rainfall outlook extending to February and released November 20, which said there was a “decreased likelihood of above-median rainfall across most eastern cropping regions, with an equal chance of above or below-average rainfall”.

“However, despite this relatively neutral rainfall outlook for summer cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales, average to well above-average November rainfall in most regions has boosted soil-moisture levels,” the report said.

Australia’s sorghum production is forecast to reach 2.6Mt in 2025-26, up 200,000t from the September estimate, but 14pc down on last season.

Qld is expected to produce 1.7Mt of this total, 100,000t more than predicted in September due to an extra 40,000ha being planted to sorghum.

Sorghum production in NSW has also been revised up from 830,000t seen in September to 890,000t, mostly due to an additional 10,000ha, “reflecting good soil-moisture availability and better returns compared to cotton”.

Australia’s 2025-26 cotton lint production is forecast to hit 943,000t, down from 1Mt seen in September.

ABARES has also revised down its forecast for area planted to cotton from 461,000ha in September to 406,000ha.

This reflected a drop for both dryland and irrigated plantings.

“A fall in the area planted to irrigated cotton is being driven by reduced water availability in southern New South Wales.

“Dryland cotton planting has been limited by below-average soil moisture at planting and more favourable returns to other crops, such as sorghum.

“However, high water availability in the northern Murray-Darling Basin and a relatively neutral rainfall outlook across much of eastern Australia is expected to support above average yields, with the production forecast sitting 9pc above the 10-year average to 2024–25.”

Qld’s cotton production is estimated at 341,000t, a drop of 49,000t from the September report, and area planted is pegged at 140,000ha, a 20,000ha drop on the previous forecast.

Likewise, the NSW plantings have been revised down, with the latest estimate putting the crop at 565,000t from 245,000ha, compared with September’s forecast of 618,000t from 283,000ha.

Water availability has significantly cut NSW’s rice production to 175,000t from 17,000ha, the smallest area planted since 2019-20.

This is a major drop from the September estimate of 300,000t from 30,000ha, as well as a 66pc fall in production from 2024-25.

“The expected decline in area planted is being driven by ongoing dry conditions which have led to a reduction in general security water allocations, and an increase in irrigation water prices.”

Table 1: Sep 2 and Dec 2 estimates for the NSW 2025-26 summer crop. Source: ABARES

Table 2: Sep 2 and Dec 2 estimates for the Qld 2025-26 summer crop. Source: ABARES

Tags: summer crop, cotton lint, Australia, rainfall, rice, Outlook, Production, forecast, ABARES