ABARE experts have raised crop forecasts for all major crops in Australia in 2025

Experts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources and Economics (ABARE) in a quarterly report released on Tuesday raised production estimates for all major crops due to better-than-forecast rainfall in key grain-growing areas.

Compared to June estimates, the forecast for grain production in Australia in 2025 has been increased by 12% to 62 million tonnes, which will exceed the 10-year average by 26%.

Thus, the wheat production forecast has been increased by 10% to 33.8 million tons, which will be inferior to the MY 2024/25 harvest (34.111 million tons), but will exceed the 10-year average. The wheat export forecast from Australia has been increased to 24.5 million tons (22.355 million tons in MY 2024/25). ABARE expects a decrease in world wheat prices against the background of a good harvest in the main producing countries.

The barley production forecast has been raised by 14% to 14.6 million tonnes, which is 9.7% higher than the MY 2024/25 crop. The barley export forecast has been raised to 24.5 million tonnes, which is 4.6% higher than the previous season. World barley prices are expected to remain under pressure from increasing global barley and maize supplies, with China remaining the main buyer of Australian barley.

The forecast for rapeseed production has been increased by 12% to 6.4 million tons (6.1 million tons in the MY 2024/25 and 4.8 million tons on average over 10 years).

Australia is one of the world’s largest grain producers, so rising crop forecasts are putting pressure on futures prices, despite strong demand.

It was previously reported that China, after imposing tariffs on Canadian canola, contracted a shipment of canola from Australia for the first time in 5 years.

Tags: Australia, barley, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast