A reduction in sown area will bring soybean production in China down to 20.1 mln tons

USDA lowered its forecast for China’s soybean production in the MY 2026/27 to 20.1 mln tons due to a decline in planted area. According to the agency, farmers lack sufficient incentives to further expand soybean acreage, as soybean margins remain lower than corn even with subsidies.

China’s August CASDE forecast puts soybean area at 10.19 mln ha, down 0.7% year on year. However, higher expected yields are projected to keep production at 20.95 mln tons, almost unchanged from the previous year. This means USDA and Chinese estimates for the upcoming crop differ noticeably.

Against the backdrop of limited domestic production, China continues to actively import soybeans. As of August 13, the country had already purchased 5.7 mln tons of new-crop US soybeans for delivery in 2026/27, while another 3.8 mln tons were sold to “unknown destinations,” which could also include Chinese state-owned companies.

At the same time, China’s 10% duty on US soybeans continues to restrain commercial demand, prompting private buyers to rely more heavily on South American origins. Brazil shipped record soybean volumes to China in June–August 2026.

USDA also expects soybean crushing in China to increase for meal production while domestic demand for soybean oil declines. As a result, China’s soybean oil exports could reach a record 1 mln tons in the MY 2025/26.

Tags: China, soybean, sown area