A large wheat crop is expected in Western Australia

Western Australia is preparing to harvest an unexpectedly high wheat crop despite low rainfall earlier in the season, which was expected to reduce production

Australia’s leading wheat-growing state is on track to produce 10.33 million tons in the 2024/25 season, according to the Western Australian Grain Association. That would be the third-largest crop on record and about 1 million tons more than the group had expected in September, when a lack of spring rains threatened production.

The unexpected increase in Australian wheat exports will help ease concerns about possible supply disruptions from the Black Sea region amid intensifying military conflict in Ukraine. Wheat futures are heading for their biggest weekly gain in two months on concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions.

Wheat yields are exceeding expectations, said agronomist and GIWA report author Michael Lamond, who lives on a farm on the western edge of the grain belt.

“The leaves didn’t look particularly good before harvest and were damaged and yellowing. But yields are good.”

However, harvest in Western Australia got a late start due to heavy rainfall this week. The Maxar weather service predicts such wet conditions are likely to continue into next week. Australia’s Bureau of Agricultural and Natural Resources Economics in September forecast that the country as a whole would produce 31.8 million metric tons of wheat in the 2024-25 season, up 23% from the previous season.

Tags: Australia, wheat, crop forecast