2024/25 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 170.0 Million Tons

The 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 170.0 million tons.

Weather continues to benefit the soybeans in Brazil and there is more rain forecasted for the next two weeks. The previous dryness in southern Brazil has been eliminated, so the only dryness concern is now in northern and northeastern Brazil, but rain should favor northern and central areas over the 6-10 day period. The rain should ease remaining dryness concerns across northern and central growing areas.

Soybean planting in Brazil is practically completed. A few areas in northern Brazil may need to be replanted due to poor germination. AgRural is estimating the 2024/25 Brazil soybean production at 171.5 million tons. They will revise their estimate during the second half of January once harvesting has started.

The soybeans in Brazil are generally rated in good condition with much of the crop filling pods under a good moisture regime. Soybeans in Parana were planted first and we should start hearing of a few fields being harvested. The bulk of the harvest will be in late January and the month of February.

Soybeans in Mato Grosso are setting pods and filling pods and generally rated in good condition. A few areas of the state might be a little short on moisture, but that is the exception and not the norm. Most farmers are expecting normal soybean yields in the range of 55-60 bu/ac.

The soybeans in Parana are entering their critical reproductive phase. The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) estimates that 34% of the soybeans are in vegetative development, 33% flowering, 27% filling pods, and 6% maturing. The soybeans are rated 0% poor, 8% average, and 92% good. The bulk of the soybean harvest will start during the second half of January although a few fields will be harvested before then. If the weather cooperates, farmers in the state should have ample time to plant their safrinha corn within the ideal planting window.

In the December Conab Report, the 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate was increased 70,000 tons to 166.21 million tons compared to 166.14 million in November (see later article). In the December WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2024/25 Brazil soybean estimate unchanged at 169.0 million tons.

Tags: Brazil, soybeans, dryness, estimate, planting