2022/23 Safrinha Corn in Brazil 55% Planted vs. 63% Last Year

The 2022/23 safrinha corn was 55% planted as of late last week compared to 63% last year. This represents an advance of 15% for the week. The planting pace is fastest in central Brazil and slowest in south-central Brazil. The safrinha corn planting is slightly behind average in Mato Grosso, but there are increasing concerns in Brazil about the delayed planting especially in south-central Brazil.

More than 50% of the safrinha corn in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul will be planted after the ideal planting window has closed. At this point, we cannot say that the safrinha corn yields in those two states will be disappointing, but we can say that the risk of lower yields increases the later the corn is planted.

Approximately 46.4% of the 2022/23 safrinha corn will be planted in Mato Grosso, 15.2 % in Parana, and 11.6% in Mato Grosso do Sul. Overall, it is possible that maybe 20-30% of Brazil’s safrinha corn is going to be planted late or even extra-late. Given the current corn prices, Brazilian farmers will plant their corn almost regardless of how late it gets.

Mato Grosso – Farmers in the state had planted 72.6% of their safrinha corn as of late last week compared to 82.7% last year and 78.7% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 22% for the week, which is very strong progress for one week. The fastest planting pace is in the northern part of the state where 83% of the corn has been planted. The slowest planting is in the western part of the state where 56% of the corn has been planted.

Farmers in the state should be able to make good progress this week harvesting their soybeans and planting their safrinha corn. The graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows the 2022/23 safrinha corn planting progress in Mato Grosso (red line).

Parana – Farmers in the state had planted 18.2% of their safrinha corn as of late last week compared to 40% last year and 22.8% average according to AgRural. Planting is most delayed in western Parana where 30% of the corn has been planted compared to 77% last year. The later the corn is planted the greater the risk of frost before it is mature. That is what happened in 2021 when a killing frost in June severely impacted the safrinha corn.

Mato Grosso do Sul – Farmers in the state had planted 6.1% of their safrinha corn as of late last week compared to 33.7% last year and 17.3% average according to AgRural.

In the municipality of Laguna Carapa in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the soybean harvest is delayed due to the near daily rainfall which is expected to continue for most of this week. Safrinha corn planting is also delayed and the ideal planting window will close March 5. Agronomists in the region are recommending to farmers to switch out some of the longer maturity corn to shorter maturity corn if possible. Shorter maturity corn would do better in the reduced sunlight of March and April and potential frosts in June and July.

Tags: safrinha corn, planting, Brazil, yields