2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 9% Harvested vs. 16% Last Year

Central Brazil continues to receive frequent rainfall although the volumes are lighter than several weeks ago. The forecast is calling for more rain with seasonal temperatures. There have not been any episodes of extreme temperatures in Brazil due to the cloud cover and frequent rains. Southern Brazil has received some rain, but not enough to break the ongoing drought, and the forecast for this week is dry once again.

The Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged again this week. Soybean yields out of Mato Grosso remain good, but there is an ongoing concern if the yields in central Brazil will be able to completely compensate for the expected disappointing yields from southern Brazil.

The Brazil soybeans were 9% harvested as of late last week compared to 16% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 4% for the week. Mato Grosso leads the way with 24% of the soybeans harvested.

Mato Grosso – The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 24% harvested as of late last week compared to 46.6% last year and 32% average. This represents an advance of 10.4% for the week, but it is still 22% behind last year. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 29% of the soybeans have been harvested. Farmers in Mato Grosso are becoming more concerned about the soybean seed quality due to the wet conditions and lack of sunshine.

The graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows the 2022/23 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso (red line).

Parana – The soybeans in Parana were 1% harvested earlier last week. The soybeans were 5% in vegetative development, 13% flowering, 66% filling pods, and 16% maturing as of earlier last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The soybeans were rated 4% poor, 15% average, and 81% good.

In the municipality of Marechal Candido Rondon in western Parana the soybeans are 10% harvested and yields are coming in below expectations. The soybeans that are being harvested were planted up until September 25th and suffered from irregular rainfall during December. Yields are expected to improve once the harvest moves into soybeans planted after September because they had not yet entered their critical reproductive phase during December.

Rio Grande do Sul – Hot and dry conditions continue to negatively impact the soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul. The hardest hit areas are in the western and northwestern regions of the state. Damage assessments vary widely depending on the analysts. Emater is estimating soybean losses in the state in the range of 20 to 25%. Aprosoja/RS is much more pessimistic. They started the 2022/23 growing season estimating the state’s soybean crop at 20 to 22 million tons. The vice-president of Aprosoja/RS is now estimating the crop at 12 to 15 million tons, so they are forecasting a reduction of 5 to 10 million tons in the state’s soybean production.

The soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul were 99% planted as of late last week with 48% in vegetive development, 35% flowering, and 17% filling pods.

Tags: estimate, soybeans, yields, forecast, harvested, Brazil, rainfall