2022/23 Argentina Soybeans 4% Harvested, Variable Yields

It looks like the weather in Argentina has turned the corner on the worst drought in generations. If the weather transitions to an El Nino before about September, that would be good news for Argentina and southern Brazil, the earlier the transition the better. Rainfall in southern South America during an El Nino is usually normal to above normal with yields being trendline to above trendline.

An El Nino can be somewhat problematic though for central Brazil with below normal rainfall. So, an El Nino is more of a mixed bag for Brazil, but definitely a positive for Argentina.

Soybeans in Argentina were 4% harvested as of late last week. This represents an advance of 2.3% for the week. Early soybean yields are below expectations, which is no surprise given the adverse weather this growing season. In the northern core area, the yields range from a minimum of 1,200 kg/ha (18 bu/ac) to a maximum of 2,000 kg/ha (30 bu/ac). In the southern core area, the yields range from a minimum of 700 kg/ha (10.4 bu/ac) to a maximum of 2,000 kg/ha (30 bu/ac).

Soybean abandonment is going to be higher than normal this year, but the total soybean abandonment will only be known once the soybean harvest is complete.

The early planted soybeans are about 57% maturing, while the later planted soybeans are 82% filling pods and 1.5% maturing.

The soybeans in Argentina were rated 66% poor/very poor, 30% fair, and 4% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage was unchanged from the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 54% short/very short and 46% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage was up 3% compared to the previous week.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left their soybean estimate unchanged last week at 25.0 million tons and they indicated that it might move lower in subsequent reports. Below is the soybean condition rating in Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for April 5, 2023.