Falling demand for Ukrainian old-crop grains

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

The upcoming harvest noticeably pressures Ukrainian wheat price, which has already even fallen below CPT prices of feed barley and feed corn.

The main reason for the price decline is weakening old-crop demand as importers are increasingly switching to new-crop wheat purchases, UkrAgroConsult reports.

Importers are making clear by every means that current old-crop prices do not suit them. And they succeed: Ukrainian wheat price has lost USD 27 (9%) in March.

There is a number of bullish factors, but their influence is insignificant. Among these factors, noteworthy are low soil moisture content ahead of planting and a possible wheat acreage decrease in Argentina, as well as a vague outlook for spring wheat planting in Russia because of the probable introduction of a floating export tax in MY 2021/22.

A similar situation is observed in the corn market as well. Trade sources also report that other of our traditional buyers already begin eyeing Argentine corn and looking forward to Brazilian one, because Ukrainian old-crop corn is too expensive at the moment.

China remains the top export destination for Ukrainian corn, but with no significant revival in its demand for now.

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UkrAgroConsult

Tags: grain, old-crop grains, demand for grain, Ukraine