World Bank expects agricultural commodity prices to fall by about 7% in 2025

UkrAgroConsult

In its new Commodity Markets Outlook report, published in late October, the World Bank forecasts that average prices for agricultural commodities will decline by about 7% in 2025 and remain near that level in 2026. The main factors behind the drop include the stabilization of global supply, lower energy costs, and a recovery in production following the climate shocks of the 2023/24 marketing year.

According to World Bank experts, prices for major grains — including wheat, corn, and rice — are expected to stay lower as harvests recover in key producing countries. Meanwhile, demand from major importers such as China and Egypt is projected to grow more slowly than in previous years.

In the oilseed market, prices for soybeans and rapeseed are likely to decline due to higher production in South America and the European Union. However, palm oil prices may remain relatively stable because of supply constraints in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Fertilizer prices are projected to fall by another 12% in 2025, easing farmers’ production costs and supporting profitability in the sector. At the same time, the World Bank warns that risks related to geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and rising transportation costs could alter these trends.

Tags: grain, prices, oilseeds