Wheat stock quotes expect a sharp improvement in the global balance, while prices in Ukraine have already begun to fall

Speculative wheat price growth, triggered by attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea, has stalled. The market is awaiting today’s bearish USDA report, which could sharply increase wheat production forecasts in Argentina, Australia and Canada (according to official estimates) and world wheat stocks.

Statistics Canada (StatCan) has raised its estimate of wheat production in the country to a record 40 million tonnes, although the USDA in November estimated it at 37 million tonnes.

Soft wheat quotes in Chicago have risen 3.6% in two weeks and are trading at last month’s level, but today the market will feel strong pressure from the updated report.

Yesterday, December wheat futures fell:

• by 0.2% to $196.95/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (+1.4% per week),
• by 1.2% to $191.4/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.2%),
• by 0.3% to $214/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+1%),
• by 1.4% to €189.25/t or $220.4/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (+1.3%).

Wheat exports from the USA in the MY 2025/26 (as of December 7) amounted to 13.634 million tons, which is 20.91% more than in the same period last year. In the 6 months of the season, 55% of the volume forecast for the entire marketing year has already been exported. The improvement in the condition of winter crops in the USA is also increasing the pressure on quotes.

The sharp increase in the cost of insuring ships in the Black Sea has increased freight costs, leading to a decrease in purchase prices, which are already under pressure from falling demand.

Purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine have fallen by another $2-3/t since the beginning of the week, and overall for the week – by $5-7/t to $214-216/t or UAH 10,250-10,400/t, and for feed wheat – by $2-4/t to $208-210/t or UAH 10,000-10,050/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Wheat exports from Ukraine in the MY 2025/26 (as of December 5) amounted to 7.45 million tons, which is 21.9% lower than last year’s rates, although export rates improved slightly in November.

Some buyers of Black Sea wheat will soon switch to a new crop from Argentina and Australia, so it will continue to become cheaper.

The decline in stock quotes after today’s USDA report will increase pressure on wheat prices in Ukraine, and the market will move into another period of restrained sales and low prices until the beginning of the new year.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat