Wheat stock market quotes are growing and supporting purchase prices in Ukraine

Last week, wheat prices on US exchanges actively grew on expectations of the signing of a trade agreement between the US and China in late October, which also supported prices in Ukraine. At the same time, markets did not react to a new increase in the forecast for world wheat production in MY 2025/26 by the IGC from 819 to 827 million tons (compared to 800 million tons last season).

December US wheat futures, after falling two weeks ago to their lowest level since 2020, rose by 2-5% during the week, including:

• by 4.2% to $193.3/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 5% to $189/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2% to $205.9/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 2.7% to €193.5/t or $225.7/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange (Paris).

It is worth noting that March futures are trading 3%, 3.5%, 2.6%, and 1.5% higher than December futures, respectively, confirming expectations of further price increases in the second half of the season.

During October 17-23, wheat exports from the United States decreased by 47.6% compared to the previous week to 258.5 thousand tons, and in total in the MY 2025/26 reached 11.463 million tons, which is 19.4% ahead of last year’s pace. This indicates a decline in demand even for the world’s cheapest American wheat on the eve of the arrival of a new crop from Australia and Argentina.

Following world quotes, export demand prices for wheat in Ukraine increased by $2-3/t per week to $220-223/t or UAH 10,400-10,500/t for food wheat and $207-209/t or UAH 9,750-9,900/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Improved weather conditions allowed Ukrainian farmers to accelerate the pace of sowing winter wheat, with 3,443.6 thousand hectares or 82% of the planned area sown as of October 21. Warm and fairly dry weather, forecast until the end of November, will contribute to the completion of sowing.

Favorable weather for sowing winter wheat in the USA, EU, Ukraine and Russia reduces the speculative influence on wheat quotes, and the arrival of a new wheat crop from Australia and Argentina may turn prices downward again in December.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat