Wheat quotations fell to a 2-month low, but prices in Ukraine have stabilized

Active wheat harvesting in the United States and data on good yields of winter wheat in the black sea countries, which also began harvesting, increase pressure on quotations.

the Rains in Australia, Argentina, Ukraine and Russia improved the prospects for the wheat harvest, resulting in stock wheat prices fell to 2-month low, which offset the speculative price increases caused by forecasts of reduced harvest in Russia. Yesterday, the stock price of wheat fell by 1-1.6%, which corresponds to the figure of two months ago.

According to the NASS USDA, as of June 23, winter wheat in the United States was harvested on 40% of the area (21% last year and 25% on average over 5 years). The number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 52% (40% last year), and spring wheat – decreased by 5% to 71% (50% last year).

July wheat futures yesterday declined:

• by 1.6% to 203 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-7% for the week),
• by 1% to 222.4 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-5.5%),
• by 1% to 222.25 €/t or 238.7 $/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (-3.6%).

At the same time, futures for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City increased by 0.05% to 213.7 $/t (-4.1%).

In the June report, the experts of the Agency MARS lowered in comparison with the estimates of may forecast yield of soft wheat in the EU in 2024/25 MG from 5.92 to 5.86 t/ha, which will correspond to the average 5-year average.

In Ukraine, the purchase price of wheat last week stabilized at 180-185 $/t or 8400-8500 UAH/t for feed and 190-200 $/t or 8900-9100 UAH/t for food grain with delivery to the ports of the black sea. The weather is favorable for wheat filling and the formation of food grade, so the price difference between food and feed wheat of the new harvest will again decrease to 2-5 USD/t.

Despite the drought, the Ministry of agriculture of the Russian Federation leaves the forecast of the wheat harvest in 2024 at 86 million tons, although the Agency Argus has reduced its estimate to 79.5 million tons, which is one of the lowest published private estimates.

India has begun to impose restrictions on wheat stocks among retailers and processors to avoid the accumulation of grain and price controls. The authorities are also considering abolishing or reducing the 40% duty on wheat imports.

According to the report on deferred commitments of traders in the U.S., as of June 18, funds increased net short positions in wheat in Chicago by 7616 to 52732 contracts, and in Kansas – by 12636 to 29044 contracts, indicating that traders expect further price increases.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, EU, prices, wheat, USA