Wheat prices on world markets remain stable, limiting price growth in Ukraine

Last week, wheat quotations on world exchanges rose by only 0.4-1% amid a lack of significant support factors.

Forecasts of precipitation and lower temperatures in the black sea region have reduced fears of loss of winter wheat crops in Ukraine and Russia.

In the US wheat stocks as of September 1 amounted to 54 million tons, which is 5.9 million tons higher than the corresponding figure last year, but was lower than expected by the market.

wheat Exports from the United States for the week decreased by 25.7% to 536,9 thousand tons, and in General in the season reached 8.23 million tons, which is 36.16% ahead of last year’s pace.

The European Commission lowered the forecast of grain production in the EU in MY 2024/25 from 264.5 to 260.9 mln tons, including soft wheat – by 1.5 to 114.6 mln tons, and durum wheat – to 7.2 mln tonnes.

December wheat futures yesterday rose:

• by 0.7% to 214,6 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (0% for the week),
• by 1.2% to 214.5 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.1%),
• by 2.2% to 228,45 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.4%),
• by 0.6% to 222,25 €/t or 247,6 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+0.9%).

Agencies of Russia continue to lower the forecasts of grain harvest in the country, in particular corn and wheat. Thus, IKAR experts lowered their estimate of wheat production to 81.8 million tons, and ProZerno – to 81.6 million tons. As of September 27, Russia harvested 80.9 million tons of wheat from 88% of the area, but the rains in Siberia delayed the harvest.

In Ukraine during the week, the export purchase price for milling wheat remained at 9400-9500 UAH/t or 203-205 $/t, and for feed wheat increased by another 100-200 UAH/t to 8900-9100 UAH/t or 190-193 $/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea. the depreciation of the dollar on the interbank market and the increase in supply from manufacturers limits the growth of prices.

In MY 2024/25  (as of September 27), Ukraine exported 5.8 mln tonnes of wheat, up 86% compared to last year (3.11 mln tonnes), including 2 mln tonnes of wheat shipped in September, which is twice as much as in September 2023.

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Tags: prices, wheat