Wheat prices in Ukraine were stable during the week, although world quotes remain under pressure from increased supply

Last week, both the global and Ukrainian wheat markets saw a decline in demand amid expectations of an increase in the supply of wheat and feed corn.

During the week, export demand prices for wheat in Ukraine remained at the level of 10,300–10,500 UAH/t (or $218–221/t) for food wheat and 9,650–9,850 UAH/t (or $206–207/t) for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the MY 2025/26 (as of October 17), Ukraine exported 5.61 million tons of wheat, which is 26% lower than the corresponding figure last year (7.08 million tons), and is 37% of the export forecast for the MY 2025/26.

Prices may be supported in the coming months by the weather, which is not yet conducive to sowing winter wheat. In the optimal terms in Ukraine, as of October 14, 2025, only 55% of the planned areas or 2.821 million hectares have been sown with winter wheat, and in the event of a cold winter there will be a risk of crop failure.

Prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) remain at $230-231/t FOB for delivery in November-December, but Sovecon experts predict an increase in export volumes from the Russian Federation in October to 5 million tons, which demonstrates the recovery of demand from importers, mainly from Africa. Wheat exports from Russia in September amounted to 5.1 million tons, and in total since the beginning of the season (as of October 1) reached 12 million tons, which is 29% lower than the corresponding figure last year.

Wheat exports from the US since the beginning of the season (as of October 16) have reached 11.19 million tons, which is 20.35% higher than last year’s pace.

Wheat exports from the EU since the beginning of the season (as of October 5) amounted to 5.95 million tons, which is 15% less than a year ago, and imports fell by 42% to 1.6 million tons due to restrictions on supplies from Ukraine.

December wheat futures in the US remained unchanged during the week:

• increased by 1.6% to $185.5/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
• increased by 1.8% to $180/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• decreased by 0.5% to $203,201.9/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• decreased by 0.3% to €188.5/t or $219.3/t for wheat on the Euronext (Paris) exchange.

Markets are awaiting the results of winter wheat sowing in the USA, EU, Ukraine and Russia, as well as the start of wheat harvesting in Australia and Argentina, which may add new impulses to prices, although overall the weather in all countries remains favorable.