Wheat prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from declining quotations on world exchanges

Increased wheat harvest forecasts in Canada, the EU, and the Russian Federation are increasing pressure on wheat quotes on world exchanges, which fell by 3-4.9% during the month, which lowers export prices and demand for wheat in Ukraine.

Favorable weather in Australia and Argentina is also putting pressure on quotes. At the same time, December futures are trading $5-10/t more expensive than September ones, so farmers are not in a hurry to sell wheat, expecting prices to recover in the second half of the season.

During the week, September futures:

• increased by 2.2% to $190.3/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (unchanged for the month),
• decreased by 0.9% to $180.8/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.9%),
• decreased by 2.4% to $205.5/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-3%),
• decreased by 4.2% to 187 €/t or 218.7 $/t – wheat futures on the Paris Euronext exchange (-4%).

Chicago prices rose on the back of rising export sales, which last week reached their highest level since the 2013/14 MY. 12.152 million tons of wheat have already been sold since the start of the season, which is 51% of the USDA forecast for the MY 2025/26 (compared to 47% on average at this date).

In Ukraine, during the week, export demand prices for food wheat fell by 200-300 UAH/t to 10,400-10,600 UAH/t or $219-224/t, and for feed wheat – by 100 UAH/t to 9,500-9,600 UAH/t or $203-206/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the MY 2025/26, Ukraine exported only 2.55 million tons of wheat (3.4 million tons for the same period last year), in particular in August – 1.8 million tons, which practically corresponds to the level of August 2024.

Demand prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in September fell by another $4/t to $230-232/t FOB in a week, which increased the pressure on wheat prices in Ukraine and the EU. According to Rusagrotrans, prices for French wheat fell by $2/t to $230/t in a week, Romanian wheat by $4/t to $238/t, Argentine wheat by $1/t to $230/t, Australian wheat by $2/t to $252/t, while prices for American wheat increased by $3/t to $222/t FOB, although it remains the cheapest and most in demand.

Low demand from importers will continue to pressure wheat prices in the coming months, especially against the backdrop of declining corn prices, but importers are likely to increase purchases, realizing that prices are at a seasonal low.

The Egyptian government imported 4.5 million tons of wheat worth $1.2 billion in the 2024/25 MY, which is 21% less than in the 2023/24 MY. It is expected that in the future the state will reduce wheat imports, and private structures will increase them.

Tags: wheat, prices