Wheat prices in Ukraine continue to decline under pressure from falling stock market quotes

Export prices for wheat demand in Ukraine, after a rapid increase last week, fell by another 50-100 UAH/t yesterday to 10,600-10,700 UAH/t or $226-227/t for feed wheat and to 10,650-11,000 UAH/t or $228-334/t for food wheat.

The number of offers from farmers has increased sharply due to seasonal sales and improved crop conditions after recent rainfall.

Wheat quotes on world exchanges fell by 1.8-2.2% on Monday, and then in three sessions, the nearest soft wheat quotes in Chicago fell by another 3%, and in Paris by 3.9%, amid increased precipitation in winter wheat growing regions.

The European Commission has raised its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2025/26 to 126.5 million tonnes, significantly above last year’s 111.8 million tonnes. Ending stocks in 2025/26 are estimated at 7.3 million tonnes, down from the forecast of 9.4 million tonnes in 2024/25, but this figure may increase due to low export rates this season.

Durum wheat prices in Kansas and Minneapolis fell more slowly due to dry conditions ahead of planting.

May wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 0.6% to $195.5/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.7% per week),
• by 1.7% to €218.25/t or $235.5/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-3.9%).

At the same time, futures prices rose:

• by 0.2% to $208/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-3.7% per week),
• by 0.6% to $216.25/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-0.6%).

US wheat prices remain the lowest in the world, but export sales in the last week fell to 100.3 thousand tons for the 2024 crop and 11.2 thousand tons for the new crop, while traders expected sales in the range of 100-300 thousand tons.

More precipitation is forecast for the US Midwest, while the Plains remain below normal, supporting durum wheat prices.

On Monday, the USDA will release its first forecast, in which it may increase estimates of corn and wheat plantings at the expense of soybean acreage, which will increase pressure on prices.