Wheat prices in the US fell to the lowest level since 2020

High rates of harvesting and good wheat yields in the United States increase pressure on stock prices, especially amid higher wheat crop forecasts for Canada and Russia.

According to the Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour, which ended on July 25, in North Dakota, the average yield of all wheat varieties will reach 3.62 t/ha (3.17 t/ha in 2023), and the average yield of durum red wheat HRS will be a record 3.66 t/ha (3.19 t/ha last year).

Against this background, wheat quotations in Chicago fell to the lowest level since July 2020, and in Kansas and Minneapolis – to the lowest level since December 2020.

September wheat futures on Friday declined:

• by 2.8% to 192,35 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-12.6% for the month),
• by 3% to 200.44 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-9.9%),
• by 2.7% to 216.24 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+7.2%),
• by 1.1% to 217,25 €/t or 235,95 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-3.6%).

Prices for European wheat fell only to the lowest level since April 2024 on the forecasts of lower harvest in the EU and Ukraine. In addition, they were supported by forecasts of increased imports by African countries.

As a reminder, the European Commission lowered the forecast of soft wheat production in the EU in 2024/25 MY by 1.1 mln tonnes to 120.8 mln tonnes, which is 4% lower than the harvest in 2023/24 MY.

According to FranceAgriMer, in France the number of soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 50% during the week. Currently, wheat has been harvested on 41% of the area (+27% per week), but the harvesting rate is lower than the average annual rate due to prolonged rains, which worsen the quality of the grain.

USDA experts forecast that Morocco in 2024/25 MY will increase wheat imports by 15% to 7.5 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, which is 39% higher than the 5-year average, as the country’s own production will decrease by 43% to 3.1 mln tonnes due to drought.

The Agency SovEcon raised its forecast of wheat harvest in Russia by 0.5 to 84.7 million tons due to favorable weather for spring wheat.

In the East of Ukraine, in Russia and adjacent areas of Western Kazakhstan, dry weather prevails, which reduces the prospects for the winter wheat harvest. However, if there are no good rains in eastern Russia in the near future, spring wheat production will also decline significantly.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA