Wheat prices fell by 0.4-2.2% during the day after a speculative increase caused by frost in the US

In all winter wheat growing regions in the US, temperatures rose above freezing after severe frosts, so winter wheat quotes decreased by 2-2.2%, but are still trading 1.8-3.1% higher than a month ago.

Wheat exports from the US for January 22-29 decreased by 1.7% compared to the previous week to 326.8 thousand tons, but in total for the season reached 16.69 million tons, which is 18.6% higher than last year’s pace.

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in the 2025/26 marketing year from 31 to 29.5 million tonnes and increased its forecast for ending stocks from 11.7 to 13 million tonnes due to strong competition from Argentine grain. Argentina is set to harvest a record wheat crop this season, so exports could reach a historic high.

March wheat futures on exchanges fell yesterday:

• by 2.2% to $193.5/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (+0.8% per week, +3.1% per month),
• by 2% to $196.4/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+0.9%, +2.7%),
• by 1.8% to $208.9/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-0.4%, +1.8%),
• by 0.4% to €193.5/t or $228.6/t – for wheat on Euronext in Paris (+2.4%, +2.2%).

In Ukraine, frosts of -10-22 °C have been persisting for more than a week, but the presence of snow cover protects winter crops from damage. This week, temperatures will drop to -25-30 °C, so some winter crops will be at risk of freezing, especially in the eastern and southern regions, where snow cover is less or absent.

Export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine did not change during the week and amounted to 10,300–10,500 UAH/t or 212–215 $/t for food wheat and 10,000–10,100 UAH/t or 205–206 $/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports. Cold weather and snowfall will continue to delay wheat deliveries to ports this week, so traders will be forced to pay premiums for fast deliveries.

Wheat processors in Ukraine are cautiously purchasing only high-quality grade 2 wheat at a price of UAH 10,300-10,500/t with delivery to the mill, but due to periodic shortages and rising electricity prices, processing is interrupted, so domestic demand for wheat will decrease.

According to the Rusagrotrans agency, frosts supported prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein, which rose by $3.5/t to a 2-month high of $231/t FOB in a week, following an increase in the price of American wheat by $2/t to $229/t, French wheat by $2/t to $232/t, and Romanian wheat by $1/t to $234/t. In the winter wheat growing zone in the Russian Federation, there are no severe frosts that could damage crops, but there is only a threat of ice crust formation in the Volga regions.

The seasonal increase in wheat supply from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU in late February and March will increase pressure on prices in physical markets.

Tags: prices, wheat