Wheat in the US could become profitable again thanks to GM seeds

Hybrid wheat promises higher yields amid declining wheat acreage in the United States. U.S. wheat is losing its dominant position in the export market and facing shrinking domestic demand. Genetically modified wheat is encountering regulatory hurdles and potential market resistance.

In Manhattan, Kansas, inside a sealed chamber the size of a refrigerator, several dozen wheat plants are being grown. Under bright LED lights, they are genetically modified by introducing a sunflower gene to improve drought tolerance.

About 20 miles away, at a research center in Junction City, scientists are developing hybrid wheat seeds. These are expected to deliver higher and more stable yields under increasingly frequent drought conditions on the Great Plains.

These experiments could reshape the future of the U.S. wheat industry, which is currently under pressure. Changing consumer preferences and the rise of low-cost global competitors are threatening its export dominance. The economic future of wheat—cultivated for over 10,000 years—is at risk in the U.S.

For decades, wheat has evolved more slowly compared to corn and soybeans, which have become highly technologically advanced crops. American farmers have been reducing wheat cultivation, often using it mainly in crop rotations to preserve soil fertility.

Now, hybrid wheat is becoming more accessible, and genetically modified varieties may enter the U.S. market in the coming years. This reflects a growing bet that scientific advances will make wheat production profitable and relevant again for farmers.

John Rich, head of hybrid wheat production at Syngenta, noted: “Wheat, to put it mildly, is not a technologically advanced crop.” He has spent years developing this product. Consumers remain cautious about GMO wheat due to skepticism, while most GMO corn and soy are used as animal feed.

Declining Demand

The United States, once the world’s largest wheat exporter, lost that status in 2017. Farmers have been observing a decline in per capita flour consumption for three decades. The situation is further complicated by new federal dietary guidelines introduced under the Trump administration and the growing popularity of gluten-free diets.

At an annual conference in Olathe, Kansas, grain industry representatives and scientists expressed concern that new dietary recommendations are undermining confidence in grain products, contributing to further market contraction.

“It’s unfortunate that we have to remind people: ‘Bread is real food,’” said Jane DeMarchi, president of the North American Millers’ Association.

The U.S. became a global leader in corn production largely due to an early 20th-century breakthrough—hybrid seeds, which deliver higher yields even under adverse conditions such as drought. Average corn yields in the U.S. increased from about 25 bushels per acre in the 1930s to 186.5 bushels in 2025.

Developing hybrid wheat seeds is significantly more complex. Wheat and its seeds are much smaller than corn and have a more complicated genetic structure, making the development and commercialization of hybrid varieties more costly for companies.

However, recent advances in DNA sequencing have reduced breeding costs, leading to a surge in research and commercialization efforts. In the U.S., seed and chemical companies such as Syngenta and Corteva are активно advancing these programs, expecting billion-dollar returns in the future.

Chuck Magro, CEO of Corteva, stated that the company has found a way to significantly increase wheat yields. According to him, hybrid hard red winter wheat developed by Corteva can boost output by 20%, making it especially suitable for bread production. The company plans to introduce these seeds to the U.S. market in 2027.

Syngenta, a Swiss company specializing in agrochemicals and seeds, is also actively developing its projects. Since 2023, Syngenta has been supplying hybrid spring wheat seeds to farmers in the northern Great Plains. By 2025, planting areas reached 12,000–15,000 acres, though this remains a small share of total U.S. wheat acreage, which exceeds 45 million acres annually.

Both Syngenta and Corteva are working on new hybrids, including soft wheat varieties used in baking and Asian cuisine. However, adoption of these innovations carries risks, as farmers may be reluctant to purchase seeds that cost twice as much as conventional ones.

Genetically Modified Crops

In the United States, nearly all corn and soybeans are grown from genetically modified seeds that are resistant to herbicides and pests. This increases yields and reduces production costs. Scientists believe similar technologies can be applied to wheat, improving its nutritional value and quality.

Allan Fritz, a well-known wheat breeder at Kansas State University, noted that any innovation that gives producers an advantage and increases profitability deserves attention.

In a laboratory in Manhattan, Kansas, a wheat line with the drought-tolerant HB4 trait, developed by Argentina’s Bioceres Crop Solutions, has been created. These seeds are also resistant to a specific herbicide that is not yet used on wheat fields. In 2024, the U.S. Department of Agriculture approved the production of this grain, although it has not yet been planted in U.S. fields.

Because wheat genetic lines vary by region, researchers at public universities are conducting tests to determine whether the HB4 trait will be effective for wheat grown on the U.S. plains. Brad Erker of the Colorado Wheat Research Foundation, which is working with Bioceres to promote HB4 in the U.S. market, said field trials will begin no earlier than two years from now.

Sales of genetically modified wheat seeds are expected around 2030 or 2032, provided major buyers such as Japan and Mexico approve their import. Erker emphasized that one of the project’s goals is to make wheat cultivation more attractive. Currently, GMO technologies are widely used in corn, soybeans, sunflower, sugar beet, and cotton—but not yet in wheat.

Tags: wheat, USA, GM