Wheat harvest in Ukraine will decrease slightly — USDA forecast for the new season
USDA has published a report with wheat harvest forecasts for the new MY 2025/26. World wheat production is forecast at 808.5 million tons (+8.81 million tons compared to the previous season), according to the USDA report for May.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 213 million tons (+6.87 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 265.7 million tons (+0.52 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has decreased compared to the 2024/25 MY harvest by 0.4 million tons – to 23 million tons, exports will be at 16.5 million tons (+0.5 million tons). Ending stocks unchanged – 1.49 million tons.
The forecast for the US wheat crop is 52.28 million tons (-1.37 million tons), the export estimate is 21.77 million tons (-0.55 million tons), and the ending stocks are 25.12 million tons (+2.22 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for the MY 2025/26:
| Country | Yield, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Ending stocks, mln tons |
| Argentina | 20 (+1,46) | 13 (+2) | 4,65 (-0,29) |
| Australia | 31 (-3,11) | 25 (-2) | 4,32 (+0,1) |
| Canada | 36 (+1,04) | 27 (0) | 4,39 (+0,3) |
| EU | 136 (+13,8) | 34 (+7,5) | 12,86 (+0,5) |
| Russia | 83 (+1,4) | 45 (+1,5) | 11,59 (-0,2) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the MY 2025/26 at 142 million tons (+1.9 million tons), import estimates at 6 million tons (+2.7 million tons), and ending stocks at 123.9 million tons (-3 million tons).
Further development of the grain and oilseed markets of Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be in the spotlight of the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV conference, taking place on April 22–23 in Kyiv. The event will focus on strategic directions for the agricultural sector through 2030, including investments, energy independence, processing, and exports of high-value products.
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