Wheat crop at risk as India projected to experience hottest March

India is set to experience one of its warmest Marches on record, with above-average temperatures forecasted across most regions.

“Monthly maximum temperatures for March are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some southernmost parts of Peninsular India,” a senior weather scientist at the India Meteorological Department said during a virtual press conference.

This follows a warmer-than-usual February, posing significant risks to winter-sown crops such as wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed.

The heatwave conditions are particularly concerning for India’s wheat production. As the world’s second-largest wheat producer, India is relying on a bumper harvest in 2025 to avoid costly imports after three consecutive years of poor yields.

However, the higher temperatures could lead to reduced yields for the fourth straight year, potentially forcing authorities to lower or remove the 40% import tax to facilitate overseas shipments.

Indian farmers primarily cultivate wheat in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and the central state of Madhya Pradesh.

The country previously banned wheat exports in 2022 due to a sharp rise in temperatures that severely impacted the crop. Recently, Indian wheat prices have surged to record highs due to dwindling supplies.

Heatwaves are expected in central regions, parts of southern India, and northeastern and eastern areas.

Rainfall across the country in February was 10.9 mm – 18th lowest since 1901 and the fifth lowest since 2001, Pai said.

The IMD’s senior scientist, DS Pai, emphasised the potential for heatwave days across these regions, which could further exacerbate crop stress. As India enters the summer season, the ongoing heat poses a critical challenge to its agricultural sector and food security.

Tags: imports, temperatures, exports, prices, risks, Production, wheat, India, yields, rapeseed, chickpea