WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS, December 5 – 13, 2024

Details about the reports:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

• In December 1-10, wheat exports were 168 K mt, an extremely low figure. Compare with over 1.7 M mt of wheat exported in December 2023.
• In January – June 2025 (the second half of 2024/25), UkrAgroConsult expects a sharp decline in russian wheat exports.
• Corn 2024 harvest in Poland was record high.
• russia rushes to export wheat before restriction are imposed. Dec 2024 russian wheat exports are estimated at 3.3-3.5 M mt (4.6 M mt in Nov 2024). In Jan 2025, the exports may decrease to 2.5-3 M mt.
• Grain exports from Poland are unlikely to increase in December.
• In December, Ukrainian 2024 oilseed crop estimations increased based on UkrAgroConsult’s revaluation experience.
• Although Ukrainian total agricultural exports in November decreased by 9% compared to October, corn and sunflower oil exports are on the rise.
• Oilseed prices are navigated by domestic factors such as crop size rather than global price drivers.
• Farmers risked planting more winter rapeseed at the expense of lower corn area in 2025, changing their usual crop structure.
• Rapeseed prices are expected to increase in January.
• Sunflower oil supply remains tight.
• Last week sunflower price lost USD 10/mt to USD 615/mt FOB Constanta.
• Danube ports are becoming less used.
• UkrAgroConsult will publish first forecast of the 2025 area distribution by crop and harvests estimations.

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, sunseed, rapeseed, logistics, Ukraine, Danube ports, sunflower oil, export, grain, prices, Poland