WASDE: USDA raises 2024-25 global corn output estimate

The US Department of Agriculture made no change to the US corn outlook for the marketing year 2024-25 (September-August) relative to last month, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, published June 12, said. The unchanged outlook was in line with the forecast of analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The department kept its outlook for corn used for ethanol unchanged at 5.45 billion bushels.

The season average farm price for US 2024-25 corn was stable at $4.40/bu. Meanwhile, the department marginally increased MY 2024-25 global corn production by 0.61 million mt to 1.22 billion mt, with increases for Ukraine and Zambia partially offset by a reduction for Russia.

The USDA kept its Brazil corn production forecast unchanged at 127 million mt in MY 2024-25. Brazilian export projection was at 49 million mt, unchanged from May.

Similarly, Argentina’s MY 2024-25 corn production estimate is also stable at 51 million mt. The USDA projects corn exports from Argentina at 36 million mt, unchanged from May.

In its latest report, the USDA slightly increased Ukraine’s MY 2024-25 corn export forecast to 24.50 million mt from 24 million mt in May. The country’s MY 2024-25 corn production estimate has also increased to 27.70 million mt from 27 million mt in May.

The USDA has lowered Russia’s MY 2024-25 corn exports forecast to 5 million mt in June from 5.20 million mt in May. Russia’s MY 2024-25 corn production is estimated at 15.40 million mt, down from 16 million mt in the previous month.

“Corn area is raised for Ukraine but lowered for Russia,” the WASDE report said.

The USDA revised Russia’s MY 2023-24 corn export estimate up 0.4 million mt on month to 6 million mt in June report.

The EU’s MY 2023-24 corn exports are also projected to rise to 4.4 million mt from 4.2 million mt in May.

Tags: forecast, Ukraine, ethanol, Russia, Argentina, exports, corn, USDA, Brazil, estimate, US, Outlook, Production