WASDE out of hibernation and bearish for wheat

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released on Friday by the United States Department of Agriculture have added more bearish sentiment to the global wheat market.

They revise figures released in the September WASDE, and signal the end of the US Government shutdown which saw October come and go without revisions to key global grain, oilseed and cotton figures.

The November 2025 WASDE has lifted the forecast for Australian wheat production from the crop now being harvested to 36 million tonnes (Mt), up from 34.5Mt seen in September, while the national wheat exports figure is up 1Mt to 26Mt.

“The global wheat outlook for 2025-26 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks,” the report states, lifting combined beginning stocks and production 11.7Mt from 1078.6Mt seen in Sep to 1090.3Mt.

In addition to the Australian increase, the jump comes mostly from lifts to production estimates for Argentina from 19.5Mt to 22Mt, Canada from 36Mt to 37Mt, the European Union from 140.1Mt to 142.3Mt, Kazakhstan from 16Mt to 18.9Mt, Russia from 85Mt to 86.5Mt, and the US from 52.45Mt to 54.01Mt.

USDA’s estimate for global wheat consumption has risen 4.3Mt over the two months to 818.9Mt, primarily on higher feed and residual use seen for Russia, Kazakhstan, and the EU.

“World trade is 2.5Mt larger at 217.2Mt, primarily on greater exports for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan that are only partly offset by a reduction for Russia.”

Since the September WASDE, the global carry-out figure has also risen.

“Projected 2025-26 global ending stocks are raised 7.4Mt to 271.4Mt, resulting in what would be the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019-20.”

In its commentary released in the wake of the November report released Friday, Lachstock Consulting points to the figures having the biggest impact on wheat.

“The WASDE provided the wet blanket that the longs feared; huge kicks in wheat production have now set the tone as global traders punch in a balance sheet that needs a shock to get excited,” Lachstock said in its Daily Market Wire.

“Historically, the USDA will move on production first [and] demand second but, given the size of the increases in production, it’s hard to see how things can get tight for the short to medium term at least.”

USDA has lowered its global production estimate for oilseeds, with the 2025-26 world soybean figure dropping to 421.75Mt from 425.87Mt seen in September, with much of the drop coming from the US, now seen at 400.75Mt, down from 404.87Mt.

However, this month’s WASDE has lifted the outlook for global rapeseed/canola production by 1.3Mt to 92.3Mt, based on increased estimates for the Australia, EU, Ukraine, and United Kingdom crops.

USDA now sees Australia’s 2025-26 canola production at 6.7Mt, up from 6.4Mt seen in September, against Canadian production of its crop just harvested at 21.7Mt up from 20Mt seen two months ago.

On canola exports, USDA is now forecasting Australia will ship 5.1Mt against Canada’s program seen at 6.7Mt.

Tags: Market, consumption, exports, grain, canola, Oilseed, soybeans, ending stocks, Production, wheat, rapeseed