WASDE forecasts soybean oil use in biofuels to increase in 2025/26 MY

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its estimate for soybean use in biofuels in 2024/25 in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 12. However, the agency expects soybean oil use in biofuels to increase during the 2025-26 marketing year.

USDA’s current 2025/26 forecast for U.S. soybeans shows slightly lower supplies, higher crush, lower exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2024/25. The soybean harvest is projected to be lower at 4.34 billion bushels, with trend yields and lower area. With higher beginning stocks but lower exports and production, soybean supplies are projected to decline less than 1% from 2024/25.

U.S. soybean crush in 2025/26 is forecast to be 2.49 billion bushels, 70 million bushels higher than the 2024/25 forecast due to higher disappearances and soybean meal exports.

USDA forecasts 13.9 billion pounds of soybean oil will be used for biofuels in 2025/26. The agency now estimates soybean oil use in biofuels at 13.1 billion pounds in 2024/25, down from last month’s forecast of 13.25 billion pounds. Soybean oil use for biofuels was 12.989 billion pounds in 2023/24.

Soybean oil exports are expected to decline in 2025/26 due to rising global supplies of palm, sunflower and canola oils. U.S. soybean oil stocks are estimated to rise 6% from 2024/25.

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from the revised 2024/25 forecast. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is forecast at $10.25 per bushel, down from $9.95 per bushel in 2024/25. Soybean meal is forecast at $310 per short ton, up $10. Soybean oil is forecast at 46 cents per pound, up 1 cent from the previous year.

World Soybean Production Forecast for 2025/26 is 426.8 million tonnes, up 1%, with higher production in Brazil, Paraguay, Russia and China partly offset by lower production in the US, Canada, Argentina, Ukraine and Uruguay. Brazil’s soybean production is forecast to reach a record 175 million tonnes, up 6 million from the previous year. Argentina’s soybean production is forecast to be 48.5 million tonnes, down 500,000 tonnes as soybean acreage shifts towards corn.

Global soybean crushing volumes in 2025/26 are expected to grow 3% to 366.5 million tonnes, with most of the growth coming from China, the US, Brazil, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam. Overall, the largest increases in oilseed meal exports are soybean meal for the US and Argentina and sunflower meal for Ukraine.

Global soybean exports in 2025/26 are expected to increase by 4% to 188.4 million tonnes from 2024/25. Exports from the major soybean-producing countries in South America (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) are expected to increase by 8.5 million tonnes, more than offsetting lower exports from the United States. Global imports are increased for Argentina by higher supplies in neighboring countries as well as in China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico and Algeria. China’s soybean imports are up 4 million tonnes from the revised 2024/25 import forecast of 112 million. Global ending stocks are up 1.2 million tonnes to 124.3 million, mainly due to higher stocks in Brazil and Argentina, partly offset by lower stocks in the United States.

Tags: soybean oil